The end of the tunnel?

EcoWeek

 Survey data lead to some optimism in most parts of the world

 2013 starts on a positive tone…

Data released since the beginning of 2013 are, for the most part, bringing some hope. In the US, the manufacturing ISM bounced back above the 50- threshold. In the eurozone, the economic sentiment index rose in both November and December, ending an 18-month deterioration trend. In Japan, expectations for a looser stance in both fiscal and monetary policies following the formation of a new government drove up the Economy Watchers Survey to its highest reading since last May. As for hard data, they stopped deteriorating. In November, and for the first time since the summer, industrial output recorded positive month-on-month developments in France, Germany and the UK. Those rebounds will likely be insufficient for a positive rate of growth in Q4, but why not in Q1. Admittedly, this is not the first time that the end of the tunnel seems in sight. In early 2011, we were also very optimistic, before the Arab Spring drove oil prices up, the terrible earthquake in Japan disrupted global supply chains and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis escaladed to new highs. As economists, we can forecast neither popular uprising nor the seismic activity of Earth. We are however sure that should tensions be back on European financial markets, the ECB would be quickly intervening

Published On Fri, Jan 11 2013, 17:22 GMT Previous entries

Alexandra Estiot

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expert in Structural issues and European Financial integration.

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Raymond Van Der Putten

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Expert in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Benelux, Pensions and Long Term Forecasts.

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Frédérique Cerisier

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Expert in France and Euro Zone Public Finances.

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Clemente De Lucia

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Expert in Euro Zone, Italy and Euro Zone Labour Market.

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