Non-Farms Surprise Higher, Yen Gets Smacked, GBP Steady

• Conservative party leads averaged at 7 points

• PPI in the UK rises to 14 month high

• US Non-Farm Payrolls = jobs not sobs

• No aid for Greece just support.

Today we have published our ‘World First Economic Calendar’ (attached to this email). This calendar seamlessly fits into your existing Outlook calendar and details the important releases for upcoming week.) This does however not work in Outlook 2003 or on a Mac however development is going into releasing calendars in those formats. Simply open the attachment (selecting replace if you downloaded last week’s)

Friday saw sterling manage to eke out some gains against the dollar and the euro through a mixture of decent data and pressures elsewhere.

Sterling was obviously laid low on Monday and had spent much of the week like a dazed boxer, waiting for the bell and an opportunity to regroup. We haven’t seen moves below the levels carved out in Monday’s carnage which is an encouraging sign and while rebound-like gains are unlikely, the prospect of imminent collapse has lessened.

The news that the latest election polls see the Conservative party out to a healthier lead than last week (ICM: 9 points, YouGov: 5 points) will give sterling a little shot in the arm. Factory gate inflation provided a little boost on Friday as it showed that PPI had risen to its highest levels in 14 months.

The pressures elsewhere were on Greece. Whilst their debt issue went well there is still tremendous discord both inside and outside the country as to how the situation is being dealt with. PM Papandreou is likely to find more sympathy from the French and the Americans than he did the Germans on Friday who, while praising the recent austerity measures, were unwilling to commit a cent. Papandreou probably had to pay for his lunch as well. The euro is unlikely to progress further while it remains in the spotlight.

US Non-Farm payrolls were better than expected on Friday; 36,000 jobs lost in Feb against the consensus view of 69,000. This saw equity markets move higher with haven currencies, including the USD and JPY, lose weight.

The data calendar is quiet today with only German industrial production of any note.

Latest Exchange Rates At Time Of Writing

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