Daily U.S. Forex Summary

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The US dollar reversed losses against the yen

Wed, Jul 23 2008, 05:51 GMT
by Union Bank of California Team

Union Bank of California


The US dollar reversed losses against the yen and euro today helped by lower US crude oil futures and comments from US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson suggesting efforts are being made by the government to resolve the financial crisis. Comments made by Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser that rising inflation could force the Fed to start raising interest rates, from 2% currently, even before labor and financial markets recover also helped strengthen the dollar. Gains were capped though with disappointing earnings from Wachovia Corp. and American Express, showing further concerns about the financial sector.

The Euro was range bound today mostly trading off of news from other major currencies. Data released earlier showed signs that the euro-zone economy was fraying as Italian consumer morale plunged to its lowest in nearly 15 years in July. Research institute ISAE’s seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index dropped to 95.8 from 99.9, lower than more modest analyst predictions of 99.1.

The British sterling held firm against the dollar and euro as investors await the minutes to the Bank of England monetary policy meeting from earlier in the month. The minutes will help better determine whether the BoE will cut rates to assist with the sagging economy or raise rates to deal with the surge in inflation.

The Canadian dollar fell against the dollar today after retail sales data for May came in slightly weaker than expected. Retail sales rose by 0.4% in May, driven by soaring gasoline prices, though analysts expected a rise of 0.6% for the month. Inflation data for June is due tomorrow and is forecasted at 4%, which is higher than the Bank of Canada target of 1-3%.

The Japanese yen weakened further against the dollar today. Investors continue to unload the low-risk currency as the dollar strengthens on stronger equities and lower oil costs.

The Australian dollar was steady against the dollar today ahead of a crucial inflation report, which could determine future interest rate moves.
Second-quarter consumer price index numbers are due tomorrow with markets forecasting an annual rise of 4.4%.

The New Zealand dollar changed little against the dollar today as investors look to the central bank’s interest rate review on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates multiple times by year end in response to the deteriorating economy. The market has priced in a 48% likelihood of an interest rate cut on Thursday.

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This market comment is prepared by Union Bank of California's Global FX & Derivatives Department for the general information of its customers. It is based of the most accurate information currently available, but should not considered investment advise or a guarantee of future exchange rate or trends.

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