Daily U.S. Forex Summary

The US dollar was mostly flat against a basket of currencies

Fri, Sep 5 2008, 05:48 GMT
by Union Bank of California Team

Union Bank of California


The US dollar was mostly flat against a basket of currencies. The dollar initially weakened against most major currencies after private-sector jobs and jobless claims data was released, but soon erased any losses as dealers digested interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. This morning, data of US workers filing new jobless claims benefits jumped by 15,000 last week and a report from ADP Employer Services showed that US private-sectors cut 33,000 jobs in August, indicating a weakening labor market.

The euro initially strengthened against the dollar after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet announced to keep interest rates at 4.25 %. The decision to keep rates unchanged came as little surprise to many market participants. At a press conference soon after, Trichet indicated that the euro zone was going through an episode of weak economic activity which led the euro to erase any gains against the dollar.

The Sterling remained fairly unchanged against the dollar after the Bank of England announced to keep interest rates on hold at 5.0 %. Some investors anticipated a rate cut due to tumbling prices of homes, rising unemployment and rock-bottom consumer confidence. With inflation more than double the central banks targeted 2 % many were not surprised by the BoE’s decision to keep rates on hold.

The Japanese yen remains flat against the dollar as investors continue to digest the abrupt resignation of current Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda. As the search for the new prime minster continues, the Japanese economy faces fears of recession and ballooning public debt to neighboring China.

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar as crude oil prices rose. Although Hurricane Gustav did little damage to US refineries in the gulf, 11 refineries representing 11 % of US fuel supply remain shutdown, and concerns over US oil supplies rose on the heels of Hurricane Ike brewing in the Atlantic to a category 4.

The Australian and New Zealand dollar weakened against the US dollar as investors continued to unwind their carry trade, shying away from riskier investments. A data released by Australia showed a trade deficit in July, even though a small surplus was forecasted.

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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This market comment is prepared by Union Bank of California's Global FX & Derivatives Department for the general information of its customers. It is based of the most accurate information currently available, but should not considered investment advise or a guarantee of future exchange rate or trends.

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