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Trading in currency markets was relatively quiet yesterday

Tue, Jan 23 2007, 15:37 GMT
by Jay H. Bryson

Wachovia


Trading in currency markets was relatively quiet yesterday due largely to a lack of economic data releases and official commentary. The major exception was the Canadian dollar, which fell to a 14-year low versus the U.S. dollar. The move in the loonie coincided with fall in oil prices yesterday afternoon. In general, signs of softening growth in Canada and declining commodity prices have weighed on the Canadian dollar over the past few weeks. Looking forward, we project that the loonie will strengthen somewhat versus the greenback as the U.S. dollar generally depreciates. That said, we expect that the Canadian dollar will underperform most other currencies. (For details, see our most recent "Monthly Economic Outlook", which is posted at www.wachovia.com/economics.)


Speaking of dollar depreciation, the greenback has weakened somewhat against most major currencies this morning. Although there does not appear to be a specific catalyst to explain the dollar's decline this morning, stronger-than-expected data on French consumer spending in December support the notion that the European Central Bank will raise rates again. Whether a rate hike occurs in February or March depends in part on how the German economy responds to the 3 percentage point increase in the value-added tax that took effect on January 1. In that regard, the Ifo index of German business sentiment, which will be released on Thursday morning, will offer some insights into the current state of the German economy.


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