http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-10-13.htmlEven the tumbling USD has hit a 5-month high against the British pound. Such is the state of the deteriorating GBP as UK CPI hits a 7-year low at 1.1%. Slowing UK CPI highlights the ensuing threat to QE currencies (USD, GBP) as diminishing inflation urgency enables central banks to further liquify bonds across the yield curve and cap rising yields resulting from higher govt borrowing. While US corporate earnings will comprise the focus of the trading week, slowing inflation will be theTue, 13 Oct 2009 18:52:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-09-24.htmlWhile FX trading seems to become increasingly bifurcated (broad USD weakness & broad JPY strength or vice versa), the unfolding trend remains a concerted move away from the QE currencies (USD, GBP) and into the commodity/high yielders as well as the EUR. Emerging talk on whether the US dollar has become the new low-yielding vehicle for carry trades financing equities, commodities and currencies vehicle highlights the difference between the USD and JPY carry trades. The latter was driven byThu, 24 Sep 2009 07:50:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-09-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-08-24.htmlJust when we started highlighting the case for peaking risk appetite in last week's article, oil prices picked up the mantle for the bulls and triggered the sell USD, buy risk trade, partly caused by a plunge in weekly crude oil inventories. The previously unimaginable break above $74 per barrel has taken place this week, courtesy of growth optimism from better than expected Eurozone PMI figures and the 4th straight monthly increase in US existing home sales. But with currencies such as GBPMon, 24 Aug 2009 13:46:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-08-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-08-07.htmlSterling Contracts as BoE Expands QE Sterling dropped across the board today after the Bank of England expanded its quantitative easing program by adding an extra 50 billion of asset purchases into the next 3 months. Yields on 10 year guilts drop 35 bps to 3.57%, GBPUSD shed 200 pts, while EURGBP shot up 100 pts to 0.8555, further proving the 0.84 support to be a key foundation in the cross pairs cyclical ascent. The above equation surely must have been examined by the Bank of England. WithFri, 07 Aug 2009 09:26:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-08-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-07-28.htmlDollar weakness has been excessive...at least for now.. The overnight wave of dollar selling was mostly led by a fresh wave of buying in commodity currencies (rather than only rising equities) courtesy of +$70 in crude prices and hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia raising the possibility of rate hikes before a peak in the unemployment rate. Markets were already expecting the RBA to raise rates by 25 bps by year-end. Todays comments further boost the long term viability of theTue, 28 Jul 2009 15:57:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-07-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-06-24.htmlGBP is knocked off its highs hours after the SNB intervened by selling francs, propelling it vs. GBP, EUR and USD. Bank of England's King and Barker say pound "appreciation has been unhelpful" and that previous sterling weakness would help UK recover faster than other nations. Such talk does not go unnoticed by FX traders as the emerging rhetoric continues to aim at keeping fx strength in check. In such an environment, gold prices do tend to appreciate (as central banks are deemed to engage inWed, 24 Jun 2009 15:18:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-06-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-05-28.htmlTalk of Fed Exit Strategy is Premature . Yesterdays 23-basis point jump in 10-year yields to 3.74% may have been helped by mortgage backed securities traders hedging, but the upward trend remains clearly intact. With Fed increasingly behind the curve in catching up with US Treasurys relentless bond issues, 10 year yields have now retraced over 50% of their decline from their 5.32% high of June 2007 to their record low of 2.03% in December. The path is now paved towards the 4.1% market, lastThu, 28 May 2009 15:08:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-05-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-05-14.htmlWhile both oil and equity indices reveal preliminary signs of a consolidation, downward momentum is particularly expected to weigh on oil. This is especially supported by my expectation for oil prices to underperform metals, which is signalled by a looming rebound in the Gold/Oil ratio. The chart below cogently illustrates how the turning points in the Gold/Oil ratio are driven by commodity markets' optimism with the economy. Thus, a rising G/O ratio occurs during deteriorating sentimentThu, 14 May 2009 16:47:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-05-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-05-08.htmlYou must have read by now that about 70% of activity in currency markets over the last 2 years has been largely driven by risk appetite, with equity indices being the primary independent variable steering FX flows. But there are times when currencies peak or bottom 2-3 days before equities begin to turnaround. The more resounding and recent example was the March 4th bottom in the EURUSD (peak in the US dollar), which occurred 2 days before the low in the major stocks indices. That low in theFri, 08 May 2009 08:30:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-05-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-27.htmlCant' fight the Fed? Bond vigilantes are fighting the Fed and winning at bidding up bond yields. Short of another shock-&-awe policy announcement this Wednesday, the FOMC decision is likely to generate fresh dollar strength against risk currencies (non-JPY).The FOMC announcement is not expected to generate the fireworks from the March 18 meeting of buying long term Treasuries. Yet, considering the combination of rising US bond yields testing 5-month highs with $101 billion in new issuanceMon, 27 Apr 2009 16:27:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-21.htmlCanada’s decision to target monetary reserves of C$ billion is textbook “quantitative easing” (not only credit easing), which is the way the Bank of Japan announced policy easing in 2002-04. Canadian dollar damaged across the board as the Bank of Canada is the latest central bank to dive into quantitative easing by unexpectedly cutting rates by 25-bps to a historical low of 0.25%, revising down its 2009 GDP growth forecast to -3% from previous -1.2% and revises 2010 GDOP growth forecast toTue, 21 Apr 2009 13:45:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-15.htmlGlobal risk aversion gradually returns as equity indices struggle in passing the earnings test. Our oft-mentioned 860-865 target in the S&P500 denoting the +30% rally mark from the March low was tested without success, further highlighting the significance of the implications for the latest equity rally. Although the S&P500 breached above the 50 and 100-day moving averages, these moving averages stand halfway between the 200-day MA (989) and the March low (666). The wide disparityWed, 15 Apr 2009 16:21:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-03.v02.htmlBefore exploring the latest boost to the Aussie, let's first go over today's surprisingly smaller than expected 25-bp rate cut from the European Central Bank. The ECB is likely to use the next 4 weeks in elucidating its intention to keep the door open for further conventional easing (rate cuts) and starting non conventional easing (asset purchases and extending term lending) as early as the next meeting. Currency markets are no longer subscribing to the much punditized notion that slower/Fri, 03 Apr 2009 07:05:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-04-03.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-20.htmlThe FOMC announcement of March 18, December 16 and September 16 each produced an interventionist surprise at the expense of the dollar. But unlike in the announcements of Sep 16 (AIG bailout) and Dec 16 (Fed's surprising zero interest rate announcement), Wednesday's announcement to buy long term treasuries and expand the purchase of MBS and Agency securities may continue to extend the dollar's retreat, beyond just a few days. My warning for a turn in the dollar emerged shortly after the dollarFri, 20 Mar 2009 16:03:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-13.htmlFriday 13 may imply plenty of luck for global equity markets as it could confirm the beginning of a 2-month rally in the major indices based on cyclical analysis of the past 12 months. Since mid March 2008 (1-year anniversary of the Bear Stearns bailout), the S&P500 has persistently shown rallies and declines lasting 7-8 weeks. The same rule has applied for the FTSE, DAX and the NIKKEI. 2-Month Long Bear Market Rallies March-May 2008 : S&P500 along with major global equity indicesFri, 13 Mar 2009 15:36:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-11.htmlOil gains 40% from its February lows, trading at $47.47, and $1.00 below its 100-day moving average, a trend that hasnt been broken since August 2008. The simultaneous advance in US bond yields along with oil prices may appear unusual given the erosion in global economic growth. But it is all about supply as increasing supply of US borrowing (another weekly batch of +$60 billion in US Treasury auctions) and mobilized stocks of US crude oil constitute the main forces behind the ensuing priceWed, 11 Mar 2009 08:44:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-02.htmlWhile the dollar and the yen continue to prove being the strongest currencies during falling equities, let's focus on the currency with the combination of past sell-off as well as prolonged downside ahead. The latest Canadian GDP report accentuates our recent notes highlighting the case against the Canadian dollar as the country produces deteriorating figures on growth, jobs and industrial production. Q4 GDP fell 3.4% annualized (first decline since 91) from +0.9% on Q3, while 2008 GDP roseMon, 02 Mar 2009 17:28:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-18.htmlWith gold prices only 7% away from their record highs and the main equity indices 45-50% below their highs, an analysis of the equity/gold ratio is amid the many rationalizations for prolonged gains in the precious metal. The equity/gold ratio highlights a commonly used measure of corporate market value versus a decades-long measure of real asset value. Gold is known as a measure of real assets value because of its ability to preserve value during inflationary times. But during theseWed, 18 Feb 2009 14:33:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-16.v02.htmlMore dismal economic figures from Canada, this time the biggest drop in new manufacturing orders on record (-12.9% in Dec) and prolonged net foreign selling of Canadian securities (fourth monthly net sales of stocks and bonds). Favored positions in USDCAD and AUDCAD are seen extending into the week. AUDCAD at 0.8150 is seen as the next upside target, followed by 0.8200. Weekly stochastics in AUDCAD also suggest bullish crossover heading towards 0.8180, followed by 0.8250. Aussie optimtismMon, 16 Feb 2009 15:30:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-16.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-16.htmlThe Japanese Finance Minister may have caught a cold as the US economic sneeze persists but the Japanese yen preserves strength across the board in Monday Asian/European trade. The 3.3% contraction in Q4 GDP and reports of a possible resignation of Japan’s finance minister Nakagawa have put up little resistance to safe haven bids in the low yielding currency after the G7 statement on foreign exchange markets omitted the issue of yen strength. As the G7 shifted its focus from individualMon, 16 Feb 2009 13:24:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-12.htmlThe latest run-up in gold's secular bull market has reaches 7-month highs of $947/oz, triggered by an initial decline in the US dollar following a disappointing Tuesday market reception of the US Financial Stability Plan. Remarkably, however, gold shifted to the next gear despite a rebound in the US currency or the decline in oil prices, underscoring the metals improving allure as a yield replacement during interest rate-eroding policies in the industrialized world. The high profile divergenceThu, 12 Feb 2009 10:45:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-03.htmlAussie is the days best performing currency out of a group of 9 currencies due to market optimism resulting from the latest government stimulus package of A$42 billion and ahead of tonights (3:30 am GMT) widely expected 100-bp rate from the RBA. With a 100-bps cut fully priced in, the risks are in favour of further Aussie upside in the event of only a 75-bp cut. AUDJPY is seen particularly bullish in the event of a positive close in US equities and Asia, which would trigger fresh risk buyingTue, 03 Feb 2009 17:39:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-02-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-27.htmlUS Dollar & Treasuries . The emergence of last week's unsual direct relation between the dollar and gold provided a valuable signal to the validity of the rally in the precious metal. It could also be explained by the rise in bond yields (fall in prices). Last week witnessed a rise in bond yields that was accompanied by a not-so smooth strengthening in the value of the dollar. Despite the dollar's leap to 23-year highs vs GBP, the currency made more modest gains vs the euro while nearingTue, 27 Jan 2009 08:47:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-26.htmlGold is comfortably holding above the $900 level as the unusual decoupling with the euro (and unusual coupling with USD) continues due to the metal’s improved luster resulting from widespread global economic gloom and ultra low global interest rates. As the price of money (interest rates) is held down by central banks, the price of its competitor (gold) pushes higher on the lack of yield reward in monetary alternatives, excess printing by Fed, BoE & ECB as well as the absence financialMon, 26 Jan 2009 13:08:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-23.htmlCurrency market participants are faced with increasingly diverse options amid the deepening erosion of risk appetite, persistent banking losses and deteriorating measures of corporate and household wealth. While yen-supportive strategies remain most prevalent amid the worsening risk-landscape, broad selling of the British pound and bearish stances in the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) has also proven rewarding. The US dollar continues to emerge as a reliable companion to the yen inFri, 23 Jan 2009 08:09:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-12.htmlGlobal risk aversion takes over as US equities once again fail to exceed the 25-30% rebound mark. This is the third time since the intensification of the crisis last autumn that the S&P500 and DIA fail to extend their bear market rallies above and beyond 25% that all temporary bounces remain short-lived money-making making opportunities for traders than long-term openings for investors. The 7.2% unemployment rate and half a million job losses underline the deepening dislocation forMon, 12 Jan 2009 13:16:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2009-01-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-12-29.htmlEuro strength and dollar weakness further emerge in thin trading activity as geopolitical uncertainty creeps higher (Israel-Hamas & India-Pakistan), giving gold a $13 boost to a 10-week high of $890/oz and more than a $5 rise to crude oil at $42.17 /barrel . The escalating violence between Israel and Hamas served as the main catalyst to oils $5 rise as Israels rocket attacks of Gaza reached their third day, raising speculation of a ground offensive of the Palestinian city. Mixed reports ofMon, 29 Dec 2008 14:26:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-12-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-25.htmlToday's latest liquidity drive from the Federal Reserve gives a fresh jolt to risk-seeking trades, extending my scenario of seasonal reversals in currency and commodity markets put forth last week, typical of the last 5-6 weeks of the calendar year, whereby markets reverse the flows prevailing in Sept and Oct. In this case, the lower yielding dollar and yen sustain fresh damage, reversing the gains posted in Oct and Sept. Such reversal is seen prolonged into mid December. The Feds quantitativeTue, 25 Nov 2008 16:22:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-20.htmlAlthough currencies ended up adopting their usual path of following the swings in risk appetite, it's worth explaining Wednesday's earlier spikes in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The moves were a result of broad dollar selling (also seen in a $25 rally jump in gold) on reports that Iran was pushing ahead with its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency found stated an increasing build up of enriched uranium stockpiles, which could be converted into weapons-grade material. Despite the IranThu, 20 Nov 2008 09:04:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-14.htmlThe attached chart shows the deepening implications of falling retail sales on retail sector payrolls, highlighting the deteriorating role of the US consumer, especially as Democrats dampen hopes of any additional stimulus package before year-end. US Retail sales fell 2.8% in October vs expectations of a 2.1% decline, following a revised drop of 1.3%. Sales excluding autos fell 2.2% against expectations of a 1.9% decline. The sales' decline marked the fourth straight monthly decrease, aFri, 14 Nov 2008 16:27:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-11.htmlAlthough signs of easing credit strains are manifested in multi-year lows in interbank rates, the market turmoil has exasperated the already shaky cash situation of US auto manufacturers, retailers and shippers, forcing fresh waves of nation-wide layoffs, which would only feed off the negative loop from rising employment, falling consumption, lower earnings and eroding bank credit. Consequently, JPY retains the last word over the USD, while both low yielding currencies dominate dealing flowsTue, 11 Nov 2008 15:58:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-06.htmlBank of England shocks with with a 150-bp rate cut to 3.00% (lowest level since 1954), against expectations of 50-bp cut, making the biggest rate cut since the central bank acquired operation independence 11 years ago. The Swiss National Bank also surprised in an unscheduled meeting with a 50-bp rate cut to 1.75%. Sterling collapsed by a full 2 cents in less than 3 minutes to $1.5710 before jumping back by more than 3 cents towards $1.6020 and later dropping back towards $1.5850s, as surgingThu, 06 Nov 2008 14:23:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-04.htmlMuch has been written about the relationship between the partisan power in the White House and the performance of the stock market. Considerable amount of statistical exercise was undertaken in dissecting any the correlations and causalities involving partisan control of Congress, mid-term elections, balance of power between White House and Congress, and the impact of double term presidencies. The table below shows the performance of the dollar index, S&P500 and the general state of the USTue, 04 Nov 2008 10:23:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-30.htmlThe Fed's 50 bp-cut to 1.00%, adds to the 50-bps made less than a month ago, making the central bank in full pursuit of its full employment objective, while extending its policy U-turn away from its inflation bias. The combination of market and macroeconomic elements will maintain global monetary policy in a rare unison of easing mode (again typical of global recession), hence, paving the way for the reflationary trade (explained below). On a side note, this is the first time in the currentThu, 30 Oct 2008 10:09:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-10.htmlThe relationship between slumping world equities, record high TED spreads (LIBOR minus T-bill) and multi-year highs in low-yielding currencies is bolstered by a break in confidence across the equity, credit and foreign exchange markets. Our Thursday morning piece sent to clients titled "Sterling Still the Major Loser" preceded further losses in the currency as GBPUSD broke to 5-year lows at $1.6784. Sterling also slumped against the Swiss franc, hitting 12-year lows at 1.900 as the Swiss francFri, 10 Oct 2008 15:55:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-07.v02.htmlThere is one concrete reason why US indices could lose at least another 20-25% from current levels. The powerful correlation between margin debt usage by member firms of the NY Stock Exchange and the trend of major indices such as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrials Average suggests further selling ahead in the main indices. The considerable leverage accumulated during the last bull market is now forcefully being undone by a powerful combination of margin calls and accelerating marketTue, 07 Oct 2008 14:11:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-07.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-01.htmlSmaller than expected 8K decline in ADP report on private payroll jobs accelerates dollar buying already emerging on increased reports of short-term USD funding among European banks. The 10 am release of the ISM report may destabilize the dollar as long as the headline index remains above $48 (exp at 49.5v from 49.9). Traders are also willing to further punish the EUR and GBP as the ECB and BoE affirm their monetary policy intransigence. Sterling Faces Further Losses Near $1.7600 A few hoursWed, 01 Oct 2008 13:31:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-10-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-09-23.htmlWe expect Today’s quadruple testimonies (Fed’s Bernanke, Treasury’s Paulson, SEC’s Cox and OFHF’s Lockhart 9.30 am EST) at the Senate Banking Committee addressing the “Turmoil in US Credit Markets” to serve their primary purpose of averting prolonged damage to the financial system and fare as an effective booster of confidence to US equities and the dollar for the day. With no major US economic data due for release, the four officials will seek to do what their respective institutions didTue, 23 Sep 2008 12:50:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-09-16.htmlDollar extends losses and risk aversion accelerates despite the Fed’s latest $50 bln liquidity boost in repos. The 0.1% decline in CPI confirms last week’s release of the unexpected 0.9% decline in August PPI. Combining last week’s release of the shock decline in August retail sales and yesterday’s unexpected 1.1% drop in August industrial production (vs expectations of +0.2%), the notion of peaking inflation and faster break in macroeconomic fundamentals is further strengthened, therebyTue, 16 Sep 2008 13:17:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-09-15.htmlDollar nears best levels of the past 12 hours on partial profit-taking during the overlap of the European lunch break and the beginning of US trade. The greenback was battered to 1 1/2 week lows against the euro and 2-month lows against the strengthening Japanese currency, which continues to take its queues from escalating risk aversion. Risk aversion is increasing looking like a pendulum swinging violently, with both extremes signifying heightened fear, with the lowest point of the pendulumMon, 15 Sep 2008 15:33:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/info@CMCforex.com (CMC Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-fx-strategy/2008-09-15.html