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Daily FX Commentary

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Daily FX Commentary

Fri, Dec 5 2008, 11:47 GMT

Investica Ltd


Markets braced for payroll slump

The Euro dipped to lows near 1.2550 against the dollar in Europe on Thursday before consolidating just above the 1.26 level ahead of the European interest rate decisions.

As far as the US data is concerned, there was some slight degree of relief in the latest initial jobless claims data with a decline to 509,000 in the latest week, although continuing claims was at a fresh 26-year high. Factory orders fell 5.1% in October, reinforcing pessimism over the industrial sector. There will be fears over a very sharp decline in employment in Friday’s monthly payroll report with the consensus for a decline of around 300,000. A steeper fall would reinforce fears over a deepening recession and increase pressure for a further fiscal stimulus package.

Fed Chairman Bernanke suggested that public funds could be used to help curb foreclosures. This announcement helped trigger dollar losses in US trading with the Euro testing levels above the 1.28 level before drifting weaker as Wall Street slipped.

The Euro was little changed on Friday in cautious markets ahead of the payroll report before weakening back to near 1.27


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Investica Ltd http://www.investica.co.uk | tim.clayton@investica.co.uk

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