Previous session overview
The Euro declined on Friday from 1.4855 high to a session low right above 1.4700 on late U.S session, weighed by U.S. Personal consumption figures. Monday morning in Asia, the pair made back some of those losses, raising to an intra-day high of 1.4780 before European traders took over.
Cable, down as low as 1.6350 in a late sell-off on Friday in New York, started the week above 1.6420 and rose to 1.6480. But the Pound strength was short-lived, early European sellers drove the pair back through 1.64 to test the support at 1.6350 once more.
Against the Japanese YEN the Dollar is currently confined to a small range around 90.00. The greenback had started the week on a strong foot, claiming back ground lost on Friday from 89.60 to peak at 90.25. Since then, its been holding just above the 90.00 support.
AUDUSD fared strong this morning, opening near last week's low at 89.60 to rise 100 points to 90.60 at present. Helped by a bullish tone in Gold, the commodity currency is expected to outperform again this week.
Market expectation
EURUSD starts the week inside a bearish channel with resistance above 1.48 and space to attempt a fall towards 1.4650 early on this week. A push through at the bottom may yield 1.45 later on. On top, 1.4820/50 area is seen as strong resistance area.
GBPUSD is seen holding a range of 1.6350 / 1.6430 initially this morning. While resistance holds, the pair is in danger of falling to re-test last week's 1.6260 low, a break there may lead a fall towards 1.60. On top a rise beyond 1.6430 should yield 1.6500.
USDJPY looks set to consolidate around the 90.00 area. With space to rise as high as 91.00 or fall to test the 89.30 support, we expect the pair to trade sideways for a day or two.
AUDUSD currently in bullish territory may stretch its high towards 0.9110 with only minor resistance at 0.9065. Strong support at 0.90 is crucial in maintaining upward momentum.
On the economic calendar today we find US ISM manufacturing Index for the month of October and Septembers pending home sales. Either one of the data may give a positive signal for the US Dollar this week.
Most important events of the day
| 2-Nov | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
| 0:30 | AU | House Price Index | Q3 | % q/q | Med | 3 | -1.5 | |
| 0:30 | AU | House Price Index | Q3 | % y/y | Med | 4.3 | -1.4 | |
| 7:30 | SE | Manuf. PMI (sa) | Oct | index | Low | 56.7 | 55.9 | |
| 8:30 | CH | Manuf. PMI | Oct | index | Low | 54 | 54.9 | 54.3 |
| 8:30 | DK | Retail Sales | Sep | % m/m | Low | -1.2 | ||
| 8:30 | DK | Retail Sales | Sep | % y/y | Low | -4.6 | ||
| 8:45 | IT | Manuf. PMI | Oct | index | Low | 49.2 | 48.8 | 47.6 |
| 8:50 | FR | Manuf. PMI (F) | Oct | index | Low | 55.6 | 55.3 | 55.3 |
| 8:55 | DE | Manufacturing PMI (F) | Oct | index | Low | 51 | 51.1 | 51.1 |
| 9:00 | NO | C2 Credit growth indicator | Sep | % y/y | Low | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.9 |
| 9:00 | EU | Manufacturing PMI (F) | Oct | index | Low | 50.7 | 50.7 | 50.7 |
| 9:00 | GB | Halifax House Price Index (2nd-6th) | Oct | %3m y/y | Med | -7.4 | ||
| 9:00 | GB | Halifax House Price Index (2nd-6th) | Oct | %m/m | Med | 1.6 | ||
| 9:30 | GB | CIPS Manuf. PMI | Oct | index | Med | 50 | 49.5 | |
| 10:00 | DK | Manuf. PMI | Oct | index | Low | 38 | ||
| 14:30 | US | Fed Board Governor Tarullo participates in a Center for Financial Policy roundtable discussion on "Executive Compensation: Practices and Reforms" | Low | |||||
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending | Sep | % m/m | Low | -0.3 | 0.8 | |
| 15:00 | US | Help Wanted Index | Oct | index | Low | |||
| 15:00 | US | ISM Survey (Manf.) | Oct | index | High | 52.9 | ||
| 15:00 | US | Pending Home Sales | Aug | % m/m | Med | 0.4 | 6.4 | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing | Oct | index | Low | 53 | 52.6 | |
| 16:30 | CH | SNB Governing Board member Jordan to hold speech in Berne | Low | |||||
| 18:00 | IT | Budget Balance | Oct | EUR mn | Low | -11.8 | ||
| 21:45 | NZ | Labour Cost Index | Q3 | % q/q | Low | 0.4 |
