Previous session overview
The Dollar kept weakening till New York close on Wednesday, in synch with rising stock markets around the world. The USD took turns to soften against Cable first, followed by the Euro and then spreading to AUD and CAD. EURUSD reached a high of 1.4130, Cable traded 1.6465. During the Asian session the US currency finally found some support and Euro is back down to 1.4050 and Cable softened by 100 pips to 1.6365. Both pairs are now supported at the old resistances; these are key-levels for today.
The 93.65 resistance popped late European afternoon and the Dollar pushed on to reach 94.45 by closing time. At their opening, traders in Tokyo took advantage of the high levels and the pair pulled back to 93.70. EURJPY reached a high of 133.35 before retracing 1%, GBPJPY traded as high as 155.10 from where it returned to 153.50.
Market expectation
Today's the weekly US jobless claims are expected to fall slightly, after that markets will be waiting for the US Philadelphia Fed Index for July at 2pm GMT. Besides that, all eyes will be on the equity markets, as a sudden turn is likely to stop the Dollar weakness quickly.
EURUSD support lies at 1.4050, while it holds there is room to move on higher with 1.4130 the initial stumbling block. If Cable keeps holds 1.6360, it has space to bypass 1.6460 and rise towards 1.67.
The YEN remains under pressure. USDJPY now above 93.65 key is in bullish territory and could rise to 95.30. The YEN crosses rose and remain in positive territory as well, but next resistance levels are not far away with 134 in EURJPY and 156 in GBPJPY.
Most important events of the day
| 16-Jul | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
| 0:00 | US | Treasury Secretary Geithner to meet with French FinMin Lagarde | Low | |||||
| 1:30 | AU | RBA Monthly Bulletin | Low | |||||
| 1:30 | AU | Merchandise Imports | Jun | USDbn | Low | 14.7 | ||
| 5:00 | JP | BoJ publishes Monthly Report (Full text English translation released 07:30 GMT on 17th Jul) | Low | |||||
| 6:45 | FR | CPI | Jun | % m/m | Med | 0.3 | 0.2 | |
| 6:45 | FR | CPI | Jun | % y/y | Med | -0.4 | -0.3 | |
| 6:45 | FR | HICP | Jun | % m/m | Med | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 6:45 | FR | HICP | Jun | %y/y | Med | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 7:30 | NL | Retail Trade | May | % y/y | Low | -4 | -2.6 | |
| 8:00 | EU | Balance of Payments | Q1 | EUR bn | Low | |||
| 8:00 | IT | Total Trade balance | May | EUR mn | Low | -277 | ||
| 8:00 | IT | EU Trade balance | May | EUR mn | Low | -221 | ||
| 11:35 | SE | Riksbank publish press release in which Governor Ingves explains his monetary policy standpoint and his view of the economic situation throughout June | Low | |||||
| 12:00 | EU | ECB Executive Board Member Tumpel-Gugerell to hold press conference in Frankfurt | Low | |||||
| 12:30 | EU | ECB Governing Council non-rate setting meeting; any other issues released at 12:30 GMT | Low | |||||
| 13:30 | US | Initial Claims | 11-Jul | k | Med | 548 | 565 | |
| 13:30 | US | Treasury Assistant Secretary, Financial Stability, Allison to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on "Preserving Homeownership: Progress Needed to Prevent Foreclosures" | Low | |||||
| 14:00 | US | Treasury International Capital System (TICS) | May | USDbn | High | 16.5 | 11.2 | |
| 14:00 | US | Philadelphia Fed Survey | Jul | index | High | -5 | -2.2 | |
| 17:00 | US | NAHB Builders survey | Jul | index | Low | 16 | 15 |
