Previous session overview
The Dollar is at the verge of breaking recent ranges. EURUSD was kept well bid thru-out the Asian above 1.3960 before moving swiftly higher to reach 1.4070 after Tokyo lunch. Cable mirrored the movement, remaining bid above 1.63 until resistance at 1.6360 finally gave way and the pair climbed to 1.6405. While Euro has now only double-topped the July high, Cable has reached a nigh high for July.
USDJPY was side-lined today, keeping in a tight range just underneath of the key resistance. The dollar did test the 93.60 level, but has so far failed. On the back of rising Euro and GBP, YEN crosses are up with EURJPY trading 131.35 and GBPJPY as high as 153.30 this morning.
Market expectation
The unemployment data for the month of May is due at 8.30GMT, its forecast to show a slight rise to 7.4% from 7.2 previously. June CPI data and the Empire Survey for July will be released in the US later on today.
The outlook for the Dollar may keep bearish for the day. Especially Cable threatens to move on higher from here. If EURUSD manages to close the day above 1.4070 it may keep on moving higher. At the same time the current double-top may remain in place and the 1.3850 / 1.4050 range can continue.
USDJPY 93.60 is the key level to watch, a move through should shift some medium-term bears to reconsider their views for a fall through 90. For now EURJPY remains underneath of the 131.35 key resistance, but GBPJPY managed a break and a daily close above 152.50 confirms further recovery.
Most important events of the day
| 15-Jul | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
| 0:00 | IT IT | Bank of Italy to release Quarterly Economic Bulletin | Low | |||||
| 0:00 | JP JP | BoJ MPC interest rate decision | Low | |||||
| 0:00 | JP JP | BoJ MPC Meeting (14th-15th Jul) | Low | |||||
| 0:00 | EU EU | EU Parliament plenary session (14th-16th Jul) | Low | |||||
| 0:00 | NZ NZ | FinMin English visits Australia to speak at luncheon in Sydney and meet with Australian Treasurer Swan (14-15th Jul) | Low | |||||
| 0:00 | WLD WLD | World Oil Forum 2009 (13th-15th Jul) | Low | |||||
| 1:00 | AU AU | Westpac-MI Leading Index | May | % y/y | Low | 0.7 | ||
| 5:30 | JP JP | Tokyo Department Store Sales (15th-17th) | Jun | % y/y | Low | -14 | ||
| 7:15 | CH CH | Retail Sales | May | % y/y | Med | 1.2 | ||
| 7:15 | CH CH | Retail Sales wda | May | % y/y | Low | 9.6 | ||
| 7:30 | NL NL | Trade balance (15th-17th) | May | EUR bn | Low | 2.4 | ||
| 8:00 | AT AT | CPI | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.3 | ||
| 8:00 | AT AT | CPI | Jun | % y/y | Low | 0.3 | ||
| 8:00 | IT IT | CPI (F) | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| 8:00 | IT IT | CPI (F) | Jun | % y/y | Low | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| 8:00 | IT IT | HICP (F) | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| 8:00 | IT IT | HICP (F) | Jun | % y/y | Low | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| 8:00 | NO NO | Trade Balance | Jun | NOK bn | Low | 22.2 | ||
| 8:15 | EU EU | Swedish Prime Minister Reinfeldt and Czech Prime Minister Fischer to speak with European Parliament regarding EU presidencies | Low | |||||
| 8:30 | GB GB | Average Earnings (incl. bonus) | May | % 3m y/y | Low | 2.1 | 0.8 | |
| 8:30 | GB GB | Claimant Count | Jun | K | Med | 41.3 | 39.3 | |
| 8:30 | GB GB | ILO Unemployment Rate | May | % | Med | 7.4 | 7.2 | |
| 8:30 | GB GB | Manf. Unit Wage Costs | May | % 3m y/y | Low | 9.4 | ||
| 9:00 | EU EU | HICP (F) | Jun | % m/m | High | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 9:00 | EU EU | HICP - Core (F) | Jun | % y/y | High | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| 9:00 | EU EU | HICP (F) | Jun | % y/y | High | -0.1 | ||
| 12:00 | IS IS | Dir. Labour Unemployment | Jul | % | Low | 8.1 | ||
| 12:30 | US US | CPI | Jun | %m/m | High | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 12:30 | US US | CPI ex food and energy | Jun | % m/m | High | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| 12:30 | US US | Empire State Survey | Jul | index | High | -5 | -9.41 | |
| 12:30 | CA CA | Manufacturing sales | May | % m/m | Low | -2.5 | -0.1 | |
| 13:00 | BE BE | Trade Balance | May | Eur mn | Low | 873.5 | ||
| 13:15 | US US | Capacity utilisation | Jun | % | Low | 67.9 | 68.3 | |
| 13:15 | US US | Industrial production | Jun | % m/m | Low | -0.6 | -1.1 | |
| 14:00 | US US | House Financal Services Committee to hold a hearing on "Banking Industry Perspectives on the Obama Administration's Financial Regulatory Reform Proposals" | Low | |||||
| 15:10 | US US | Treasury Assistant Secretary, Financial Institutions, Barr to give remarks to the Exchequer Club of Washington | Low | |||||
| 18:00 | US US | Fed release minutes from prior (23rd-24th Jun) FOMC meeting | Low | |||||
| 22:30 | NZ NZ | BNZ-Business NZ PMI | Jun | index | Low | 42.7 | ||
| 22:45 | NZ NZ | CPI | Q2 | % q/q | Low | 0.5 | 0.3 | |
| 22:45 | NZ NZ | CPI | Q2 | % y/y | Low | 1.8 | 3 | |
| 22:45 | NZ NZ | Food Price | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.3 | ||
| 22:45 | NZ NZ | Food Price | Jun | % y/y | Low | 6.8 | ||
| 23:50 | JP JP | METI Tertiary activity index | May | % m/m | Med | 0.4 | 2.2 |
