Previous session overview

Monday night saw the Dollar close low, EURUSD stood at 1.40, GBPUSD was seen at 1.6290. It was sold after the Dow rallied nearly 200 points to close at a 14-day high. Early Asian traders picked up cheap Dollars, but they were unable to drive EURUSD through support at 1.3965, positions were squared and the pair returned to 1.40. GBPUSD outperformed Euro this morning, extending the top to 1.6305 a short while ago.

USDJPY traded through 92.60 in late Europe and never looked back. Up to 93.10 at the end of the New York session, the pair held on to form a base at 92.80 and extend the top to 93.30 in Tokyo. We are now trading close to key resistance at 93.60. Both JPY-crosses rose strongly, EURJPY reached a high of 130.65 while GBPJPY peaked at 152. Their moves were amplified by the weak Dollar. So far they remain underneath of their key resistance levels of 131.30-ish EURJPY and 152.50 GBPJPY.


Market expectation

Lots of market data this morning in Europe, starting with the German and European ZEW economic sentiment index for July. At 12.30 GMT US June Retail Sales and PPI will be released.

Currency markets are likely to remain volatile. With Euro and Cable threatening to lift the July top on one side and a growing sentiment that the GBP rise may be very overdone on the other. There should be lots of trading interests and volatility. For now EURUSD 1.3850 / 1.4050 range persists, GBPUSD next strong resistance lies above 1.6360, support far lower at 1.61.

USDJPY range 92.80 / 93.40 initially, a test of 93.60 seems imminent. A fall lower would confirm a medium-term outlook for a stronger YEN. EURJPY and GBPJPY are close to their resistance levels, a daily close above may scare the bears. On the other hand, the last days rally seem like an invitation to establish fresh short positions.


Most important events of the day

14-JulCount. Event For Unit Imp. Act. Cons. Prev.
0:00WLD OPEC publishes monthly oil market report Low
0:00WLD OPEC publishes monthly oil market report Low
0:00JP BoJ MPC Meeting (14th-15th Jul) Low
0:00EU EU Parliament plenary session (14th-16th Jul) Low
0:00NZ FinMin English visits Australia to speak at luncheon in Sydney and meet with Australian Treasurer Swan (14-15th Jul) Low
0:00WLD World Oil Forum 2009 (13th-15th Jul) Low
1:30AU NAB Business Confidence Jun index Med-2
5:30JP Tokyo Department Store Sales (14th-17th) Jun % y/y Low-14
7:30NL Trade balance May EUR bn Low2.4
8:00EU Election of new European Parliament President Low
8:30GB DCLG House Prices May % y/y Low-12.6-13
8:30GB BoE MPC member Posen to testify to Treasury Committee on Appointment Low
8:30GB CPI Jun % m/m High0.30.6
8:30GB CPI Jun % y/y High1.82.2
9:00DE ZEW (Current Conditions) Jul Survey Med-88-89.7
9:00DE ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul Survey High4844.8
9:00EU Industrial production May % y/y Low-17.5-21.6
9:00EU Industrial production May % m/m Low1.5-1.9
9:00EU ZEW (Current Conditions) Jul Survey Low-90.7
9:00EU ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul Survey High4442.7
12:30US PPI Jun % m/m Med0.90.2
12:30US PPI ex food and energy Jun % m/m Med0.1-0.1
12:30US Retail Sales Jun % m/m High0.40.5
12:30US Retail Sales Ex Autos Jun % m/m High0.50.5
12:30CA Motor Vehicle Sales May % m/m Low1
14:00US IBD consumer optimism Jul index Low49.350.8
14:00US SEC Chairman Schapiro to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the agency's oversight and enforcement agenda Low
22:30US Philadelphia Fed President Plosser to give opening speech before the Entrepreneurs Forum of Greater Philadelphia Low
23:01GB BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Total) Jun % y/y Med0.8
23:01GB RICS Housing Survey Jun % y/y Med-40-44.1