Previous session overview
The Dollar had a fairly volatile day in Europe today, but it remained range-bound so far. After EURUSD closed high at 1.3975 last Friday, it traded down to 1.3905 in Asia this morning, before rising as high as 1.3990 and once again retreating to 1.3910 a few minutes ago. Despite high intra-day volatility the pair remains inside the range set-out last week, key support remains at 1.3850, strong resistance 1.4050.
Cable only mirrored the Euro's movement to the downside, falling close to 200 pips during this morning's Asian session to hit a low of 1.6040 before recovering above 1.61. The pair again has come under pressure in European afternoon.
USDJPY has re-tested last week's 91.80 support, from where it bounced to 92.50. Interest in the currency pair was low. GBPJPY and EURJPY both held recent support levels.
Market expectation
No economic data of importance today. Looking ahead we expect tomorrows German/European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index to be a potential market mover, market analysts are looking for a slight improvement in July.
EURUSD is likely to continue holding its range between 1.3850 and 1.4050. Threat is a break to the downside which may lead to 1.3660 in the short-term. Especially Cable remains vulnerable; a clear break of the psychological 1.60 level may see the Pound drop off towards 1.55.
USDJPY is holding low levels for now, but neither USDJPY nor JPY-crosses have been able to climb back above old support levels, for now we keep a bearish bias and would not be surprised if the Japanese currency takes a sudden leap higher.
Most important events of the day
| 13-Jul | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
| 0:00 | US | Treasury Secretary Geithner to meet with British Prime Minister Brown and FinMin Darling to discuss efforts to restore global growth | Low | |||||
| 0:00 | WLD | World Economic Forum to publish report on "ICT for Economic Growth" | Low | |||||
| 1:30 | AU | Lending Finance | May | % m/m | Low | 2.5 | -6.3 | |
| 3:00 | NZ | QV Property Value | Jun | % y/y | Low | 7.1 | -8.1 | |
| 3:00 | NZ | QV Property Value | Jun | % y/y | Low | -8.1 | ||
| 4:30 | JP | Capacity Utilisation | May | index | Low | 8 | 10.2 | |
| 4:30 | JP | Industrial production (F) | May | % m/m | Med | 5.9 | ||
| 4:30 | JP | Industrial production (F) | May | % y/y | Med | -29.5 | -29.5 | |
| 5:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | Jun | index | Med | 37.6 | 35.7 | |
| 7:15 | CH | Producer Import prices | Jun | %m/m | Low | 0.1 | -0.3 | |
| 7:15 | CH | Producer Import prices | Jun | %y/y | Low | -5.6 | -5.4 | -5 |
| 10:30 | EU | ECB President Trichet to speak at the Munich Seminars | Low | |||||
| 18:00 | US | Budget | Jun | $ bn | Low | -97 | -189 | |
| 18:00 | US | House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigation hold a hearing on "Preventing Unfair trading by Government Officials" | Low | |||||
| 23:01 | GB | BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Total) | Jun | % y/y | Med | -40 | 1.3 | |
| 23:01 | GB | RICS Housing Survey | Jun | % y/y | Med | -40 | -44.1 |
