Previous session overview
The Dollar continued to rally after the NY close last night. EURUSD fell a full 100 points from 1.4010 to 1.3910 on Friday morning in Asia. The move is keeping EURUSD in this week's well established range between 1.3850 and 1.4050. Cable outperformed the Euro but was also trading lower over the course of this morning's trading session. GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.6280, down from the week's top at 1.6375 yesterday afternoon.
USDJPY volatility has slowed over the past 36h. The pair remains in bearish territory in a fairly tight range of 92.50 - 93.10, with strong resistance capping the dollar at 93.60. Meanwhile the JPY-crosses are turning south once more after having recovered another 2% in late New York. EURJPY and GBPJPY both fell 100 pips each this morning, EURJPY from 129.00 to 128.00 and GBPJPY is down at 151.
The Australian Dollar continues to underperform its European counterparts with yet another dive lower. Currently at 0.7770 it is just 40 pips above this week's low.
Market expectation
US trade balance for the month of May is scheduled today at 12.30 GMT, it may well the most important data release for the week. Market expectations are for a slightly higher trade deficit of $30Bln, after $29.2Bln in April, indicating that the US imports may have bottomed out. The preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index at 2pm GMT and US Treasury secretary Geither' testimony in front of a Congressional panel are today's other economic events.
Expect currency markets to remain confined to this week's range, EURUSD should continue to trade inside 1.3850 / 1.4050. Cable has plenty of room to the downside down to 1.60 - on top a rise through 1.6360 may be a bullish sign and catch some trader's off-guard.
USDJPY continues to look weak, expect a re-tests of initial support at 92.50 with room to trade down to 91.80, a break there is bearish for next week.
Most important events of the day
| 10-Jul | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
| 0:00 | WLD | 2009 G8 Summit (8th-10th Jul) | Low | |||||
| 6:00 | DE | Wholesale price index | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.9 | 0.1 | |
| 6:00 | DE | Wholesale price index | Jun | % y/y | Low | -8.8 | -8.9 | |
| 6:45 | FR | Central Government Balance | May | EUR bn | Low | -71.9 | ||
| 6:45 | FR | Current Account | May | EUR bn | High | -3.1 | ||
| 6:45 | FR | Industrial Production | May | % m/m | Low | -0.2 | -1.4 | |
| 6:45 | FR | Industrial Production | May | % y/y | Low | -15.8 | -17.1 | |
| 6:45 | FR | Manufacturing Production | May | % m/m | Low | 0.4 | -0.5 | |
| 6:45 | FR | Manufacturing Production | May | % y/y | Low | -17 | -18.8 | |
| 7:00 | ES | CPI (F) | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.4 | ||
| 7:00 | ES | CPI (F) | Jun | % y/y | Low | -1 | -0.9 | |
| 7:00 | ES | HICP (F) | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.4 | ||
| 7:00 | ES | HICP (F) | Jun | % y/y | Low | -1 | -0.9 | |
| 7:30 | NL | Manufacturing Production | May | % y/y | Low | -12.7 | -12.1 | -13.6 |
| 7:30 | NL | Manufacturing Production (sa) | May | % m/m | Low | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 7:30 | DK | CPI | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 7:30 | DK | CPI | Jun | %y/y | Low | 1.2 | 1 | 1.3 |
| 7:30 | DK | HICP | Jun | % m/m | Low | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 7:30 | DK | HICP | Jun | %y/y | Low | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 8:00 | SE | Unemployment AMV (nsa) | Jun | % rate | Low | 5 | 5 | 4.7 |
| 8:00 | IT | Industrial Production (sa) | May | % m/m | Low | -1.1 | 1.1 | |
| 8:00 | IT | Industrial Production (wda) | May | % y/y | Low | 19.8 | -25 | -24.3 |
| 8:00 | NO | Core CPI | Jun | % y/y | Low | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 8:00 | NO | Core CPI | Jun | %m/m | Low | 0.3 | ||
| 8:00 | NO | CPI | Jun | % y/y | Low | 3 | 3 | |
| 8:00 | NO | CPI | Jun | %m/m | Low | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| 8:00 | NO | PPI inc. Oil | Jun | % y/y | Low | 0.8 | -2.9 | |
| 8:00 | NO | PPI inc. Oil | Jun | %m/m | Low | 8.7 | 6.5 | |
| 8:00 | WLD | IEA publishes monthly oil market report | Low | |||||
| 8:30 | GB | Input Prices (unadj) | Jun | % m/m | Med | 0.8 | 0.4 | |
| 8:30 | GB | Input Prices (unadj) | Jun | % y/y | Med | -12.1 | -9.4 | |
| 8:30 | GB | Output Prices (unadj) | Jun | % m/m | Med | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
| 8:30 | GB | Output Prices (unadj) | Jun | % y/y | Med | -0.8 | -0.3 | |
| 8:30 | GB | Output Prices Core (unadj) | Jun | % m/m | Med | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| 11:00 | CA | Net Change in Employment | Jun | k | High | -35 | -41.8 | |
| 11:00 | CA | Unemployment | Jun | % | Med | 8.7 | 8.4 | |
| 12:00 | IS | Dir. Labour Unemployment | Jun | % | Low | 8.7 | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import prices | Jun | % m/m | Med | 2 | 1.3 | |
| 12:30 | US | Trade Balance | May | $ bn | Med | -30 | -29.2 | |
| 12:30 | CA | House Price Index | May | %m/m | Med | -0.4 | -0.6 | |
| 12:30 | CA | Merchandise trade | May | C$ bn | Med | -0.5 | -0.2 | |
| 14:00 | US | Univ of Mich Sent. (P) | Jul | index | High | 70 | 70.8 | |
| 14:00 | US | Treasury Secretary Geithner to present a proposal to increase oversight and transparency on the widely unregulated OTC derivatives market before a Congressional panel | Low | |||||
| 20:15 | CA | BoC Senior Deputy Governor Jenkins to speak with the Columbian Banking Association on "Canada's Financial Sector: Responses to the Global Crisis | Low |
