Previous session overview
The yen's overnight rally stalled in Tokyo Thursday as investors sold the unit for dollars and euros at bargain prices, dealers said.
Japanese importers also bought dollars at their lows, keeping the U.S. currency above its New York low of JPY95.14, which was briefly touched again early in the Asian session.
Another factor checking further yen gains was selling by players who had sold about USD2 billion worth of dollar-put, yen-call options contracts struck at JPY95 and set to expire at 10 a.m. New York time, dealers said.
EUR fell from its domestic opening, from USD1.3700 to USD1.3565, which is minor support from Tuesday. There were conflicting comments from ECB's Kranjec and Weber - the former saying bond purchases may exceed the stated EUR 60 billion, the latter the opposite.
Sterling weakened against the dollar after weak US retail data reduced optimism that the global economy is on the road to recovery. Bank of England inflation report showed that CPI should stay below 2% for the next 3 years. This slow recovery view is at odds with the green shoots commentary from other Central Banks around the world. EURGBP traded above 0.9000 before once again slipping form this key level.
The Australian dollar slumped to its lowest level in six days Thursday as risk aversion resurfaced following data showing a drop in U.S. retail sales in April.
Market expectation
The dollar is rising against the euro, pound and yen Thursday, as risk aversion again holds sway, at least for now.
While the dollar benefited from a decline in riskier rivals Wednesday, there are persistent concerns over the greenback that have market analysts questioning how safe this traditional safe haven will continue to be.
EURUSD has backed away from the strong USD1.3745 resistance area and now looks to be heading toward the USD1.3525 downside pivot says analysts. If it breaks here then risk can opens toward USD1.34-USD1.3375. Analysts say the rate needs to regain USD1.3625 to temper downside risks and suggest USD1.3530-USD1.3720 range ensues prior to another run on USD1.3745.
Pound again met decent demand on dips toward USD1.5100, with rate currently trading back around USD1.5145/50. Traders note that there seems to be decent demand on dips in cable, euro-dollar and Aussie out there. Resistance seen placed at USD1.5150/55 ahead of USD1.5170/80.
USDJPY real-money accounts said to have been the major sellers over recent days, with large volumes going through from medium to long-term names. Dollar-yen now ease back to the JPY95.40 area after marginally extending the highs in European dealing above JPY95.75. Bids still noted into JPY95.00 option interests, with good tech support at JPY95.11/95.02 (100-day moving average and Ichimoku Cloud base).
Some dealers said the yen's strengthening may resume during London and New York trade, particularly if global share markets continue falling and if the weekly U.S. jobs report due at 1230 GMT comes in worse than expected.
About Australian dollar traders said the currency is likely to remain under pressure as the loss of confidence continues to reverberate through global equity markets.
Most important events of the day
| 14-May | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
| 0:00 | EU | Brussels economic forum (14th-15th May) | Low | |||||
| 1:30 | AU | Lending Finance | Apr | % m/m | Low | |||
| 6:00 | FI I | CPI | Apr | % y/y | Low | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| 6:00 | NO | Norges Bank Governor Gjedrem to appear before the standing committee of finance and economic affairs of the Norwegian parliament | Low | |||||
| 7:00 | ES | GDP (P) | Q1 | % q/q | Low | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1 |
| 7:00 | ES | GDP (P) | Q1 | % y/y | Low | -2.9 | -2.9 | -0.7 |
| 7:00 | CH | SNB Board Member Jordan to speak before the Swiss Economic forum in Thun | Low | |||||
| 7:00 | AT | Austrian Central Bank holds seminar on "New paradigms for economic policy" (14th-15th May) | Low | |||||
| 7:00 | EU | ECB Governing Council Member Nowotny to give opening remarks on the first day of the Austrian Central Bank conference | Low | |||||
| 7:15 | CH | Producer Import prices | Apr | %m/m | Low | 0.8 | -0.5 | |
| 7:15 | CH | Producer Import prices | Apr | %y/y | Low | -2.8 | -2.8 | |
| 7:30 | NL | CPI | Apr | % y/y | Low | 1.9 | 2 | |
| 7:30 | NL | Trade balance | Mar | EUR bn | Low | |||
| 7:30 | NL | CPI | Apr | % m/m | Low | 0.2 | 1 | |
| 8:00 | WLD | IEA publishes monthly oil market report | Low | |||||
| 8:00 | EU | ECB release Monthly Bulletin (SPF Survey Q2 2009) | Low | |||||
| 8:00 | EU | ECB Vice-President Papademos speaks in Vienna on "Monetary policy and the 'Great crisis' - what lessons for the future?" | Low | |||||
| 8:00 | EU | ECB Governing Council Member Wellink speaks on "Restructuring of European and international financial supervision", Vienna | Low | |||||
| 10:30 | EU | ECB President Trichet to hold a meeting in Paris with French President Sarkozy | Low | |||||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Claims | 9-May | k | Med | 610 | 601 | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI | Apr | % m/m | Med | 0.2 | -1.2 | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI ex food and energy | Apr | % m/m | Med | 0.1 | ||
| 15:30 | EU | ECB Executive Board Member Gonzalez-Paramo to speak at a conference in Seville | Low | |||||
| 16:20 | EU | ECB Executive Board Member Stark speaks at an event in Berlin | Low | |||||
| 17:30 | AT | FinMin Proell speaks on "The role of fiscal policy in the current crisis" at the Austrian Central Bank seminar | Low | |||||
| 22:45 | NZ | Retail Sales | Mar | % m/m | Med | 0.2 | ||
| 22:45 | NZ | Retail Sales (Ex-Auto) | Mar | % m/m | Low | -0.1 | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Domestic CGPI | Apr | % y/y | Low | -3 | -2.2 | |
| 23:50 | JP | Key Machinery Orders | Mar | % m/m | Low | -4.6 | 1.4 | |
| 23:50 | JP | Key Machinery Orders | Mar | % y/y | Low | -27.7 | -30.1 | |
| 23:50 | JP | Domestic CGPI | Apr | % m/m | Low | 0.2 | -0.2 |
