Previous session overview
The dollar briefly dipped below the psychologically-important JPY100-mark in Tokyo Wednesday, as falling regional share markets prompted players to buy back the yen as a safe-haven currency, dealers said.
On Tuesday, the EURUSD continued to move south as stocks extended the correction that started on Monday. EURUSD tested bids in the USD1.3230 area at the start of US trading. Later in the session, the decline slowed, but as stocks stayed in the red, there was no upside for EURUSD either. The pair closed the session at USD1.3272.
The Sterling fell against the dollar after weak UK data and a fall in domestic equities showed a retreat in risk appetite. Figures showed that UK manufacturing output fell 0.9% in February, marking the 12th consecutive month of declines.
The Japanese Yen benefited from the return of risk aversion with the USDJPY testing 100 Yen on the downside. The Key level proved solid and the market returned to more stable level.
The Australian dollar was weaker late Wednesday as Wall Street continued to pare back some of its month-long rally as the first U.S. corporate earnings for the March quarter start to roll out.
Market expectation
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are gaining against the euro as risk aversion picks up with stock market losses.
Many investors were already looking to scale back their holdings of dollars and euros against the yen as currency markets become less liquid, and potentially more volatile, ahead of the Easter holiday in the U.S., Europe and parts of Asia, dealers said.
If share markets fall further in the rest of the afternoon, then the euro may fall to JPY130.00 against the yen and USD1.3000 against the dollar, while the greenback could retreat to around JPY99.00, said analysts.
Euro-dollar currently trades around USD1.3185 in early European dealing. Traders note support seen in place between USD1.3170/50 with stops below. A break here can open potential for a deeper move toward USD1.3115/00. Resistance seen placed at USD1.3200 (76.4% USD1.3210/1.3166), with offers no toward USD1.3210. A break can allow for a push on toward USD1.3220/25 ahead of USD1.3240/50.
Most important events of the day
| 8-Apr | Count. | Event | For | Unit | Imp. | Act. | Cons. | Prev. |
| 0:01 | GB | NIESR GDP Est. | Mar | % 3m/3m | High | -1.8 | ||
| 0:01 | GB | Nationwide Consumer Confidence | Mar | Index | Med | 43 | ||
| 0:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence | Apr | index | Med | 85.6 | ||
| 1:30 | AU | Housing Finance | Mar | % m/m | Med | 3.5 | ||
| 5:00 | JP | BoJ publishes Monthly Report (Full text English translation released 07:30 GMT on 9th Apr) | Low | |||||
| 5:00 | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | Feb | index | Med | 19.4 | ||
| 6:00 | FI | GDP Indicator | Jan | % y/y | Low | -4.8 | ||
| 6:00 | DE | Current Account (nsa) | Feb | EURbn | Med | 4.2 | ||
| 6:00 | DE | Trade Balance | Feb | EURbn | Med | 8.5 | ||
| 6:00 | SE | Prospera Expectations Survey | Q1 | % | Low | |||
| 7:30 | DK | Trade Balance | Feb | DKK bn | Low | 2.6 | ||
| 7:30 | DK | Current Account | Feb | DKK bn | Low | -2.7 | ||
| 7:45 | FR | Trade Balance | Feb | EUR bn | Low | -4.5 | ||
| 8:00 | NO | Core CPI | Mar | % y/y | Low | 3 | ||
| 8:00 | NO | Core CPI | Mar | %m/m | Low | 1.1 | ||
| 8:00 | NO | CPI | Mar | % y/y | Low | 2.5 | ||
| 8:00 | NO | CPI | Mar | %m/m | Low | 0.8 | ||
| 8:00 | NO | PPI inc. Oil | Mar | % y/y | Low | 0.2 | ||
| 8:00 | NO | PPI inc. Oil | Mar | %m/m | Low | -2.3 | ||
| 9:30 | GB | BRC Shop price index | Mar | %y/y | Low | 1.9 | ||
| 10:00 | DE | Factory orders | Feb | % m/m | Low | -8 | ||
| 10:00 | DE | Factory orders | Feb | %y/y | Low | -37.9 | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing starts | Mar | k | Med | 134.7 | ||
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories | Feb | %m/m | Low | -0.7 | ||
| 18:00 | US | Fed release minutes from prior (17th-18th Mar) FOMC meeting | Low | |||||
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Card Transactions | Mar | % m/m (sa) | Low | 0.5 | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Key Machinery Orders | Feb | % m/m | Low | -3.2 | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Key Machinery Orders | Feb | % y/y | Low | -39.4 |
