Previous session overview
During the Asian session today, the US Dollar lost most of the gains made on the back of a lower than expected Trade deficit, as people realize that the result is mostly due to reduced consumer spending and points to deepening recession. After a low of 1.3140 yesterday, EURUSD opened at 1.3200 and rose to 1.3337. The British Pound staged an even stronger recovery; it opened near the low at 1.4514 from where it rose as high as 1.4707 moments ago.
USDJPY took the opposite direction, after falling the previous day, it rose from a low of 89.22 to a high of 89.96. Needless to say that EURJPY and GBPJPY both outperformed, rising more than 1.5% during the Asian session. The Swiss Franc meanwhile underperformed, oscillating between 1.1124 and 1.1184.
Market expectation
With uncertainty king and news strongly influencing day trading, we can expect currency markets to remain volatile, 1% movements can be seen every few hours. After a strong recovery the Euro must face reality again; tomorrows ECB meeting and ongoing talks about how to best handle debts in individual country such as Spain, Greece or Italy may weaken the currency.
EURUSD has bearish trend-resistance at 1.3420, strong support lies down at 1.3140, hence there is ample space for intra-day swings. GBPUSD strong resistance above 1.47 - a break there may lead to 1.50 once again. Minor rising support at 1.4600 may hold, there is space to drop to 1.44 after that.
The USDJPY range should initially remain 89.50 / 90.00 with support seemingly strong and a daily close above 90.00 viewed as bullish towards 91. Additional support 89.00 is key - a break lower is critical. USDCHF finally is looked between 1.11 and 1.1250, a break has room for a 2-cent move on either side.
The Economic data calendar is loaded with US Retail Sales and Import Price Index for December at 1.30pm GMT and November Business Inventories are scheduled at 3pm. In Europe, Industrial Production for November is to be released shortly.
Most important events of the day
| Date | Time:GMT | Currency | Indicator | Forecast | Prior |
| 1/14/2009 | 0:30 | AUD | Home Loans m/m | 1.00% | 1.40% |
| 1/14/2009 | 6:00 | JPY | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | -62.10% | |
| 1/14/2009 | 7:45 | EUR | French CPI m/m | -0.30% | -0.50% |
| 1/14/2009 | 9:00 | EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | -1.30% | -1.20% |
| 1/14/2009 | 10:00 | EUR | Industrial Production m/m | -2.10% | -1.20% |
| 1/14/2009 | 13:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | -1.30% | -1.60% |
| 1/14/2009 | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales m/m | -1.20% | -1.80% |
| 1/14/2009 | 13:30 | USD | Import Prices m/m | -5.40% | -6.70% |
| 1/14/2009 | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories m/m | -0.50% | -0.60% |
| 1/14/2009 | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.1M | 6.7M |
| 1/14/2009 | 19:00 | USD | Beige Book | ||
| 1/14/2009 | 23:50 | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | -8.20% | -4.40% |
| 1/14/2009 | 23:50 | JPY | CGPI y/y | 0.80% | 2.80% |
