Previous session overview
The dollar managed to rise Wednesday against most of its European rivals despite the improvement in risk sentiment, as investors took profit on the euro and the U.K. pound's increases during the past couple days. China's big rate cut also played into the equation.
Demand for the EUR fell on market pessimism over the adequacy of a European stimulus package released last night; it is worth EUR200 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP. From an early high of 1.3028, EUR stepped downwards to its current 1.2870.
It was a mixed session for the pound, as growth revisions and Prime Minister Gordon Brown's calls for UK banks to free up credit reminded the market of the nation's economic and financial bind. The Sterling was extremely volatile as low liquidity made it easy to move wildly. After starting the day near 1.55 the GBP was offer most of the day but found support as Oil and Stocks rallied.
The Japanese yen strengthened overnight as Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa continues to resist a call for lower rates below the current 0.3 percent level.
The Canadian dollar fell close to1 percent against its US counterpart as lackluster equity markets weighed on investors.
Another firm session for regional equities lifted the Australian dollar in Asia trading Thursday, in very thin trade, while interest rate futures softened.
Market expectation
EURUSD is nudging higher Thursday, briefly touching 1.2930, as players try to hit rumored stops around 1.2935, said traders. Even if stops are hit, the pair is likely to stay in a 1.2880-1.2980 range there's no big flow of money right now.
EURUSD currently trades around USD1.2915. Offers remain placed around USD1.2930, with interest extending toward the overnight highs at USD1.2938. A break above USD1.2940 can open a move on toward USD1.2980. Support remains at USD1.2870, with talk in Asia linking demand placed between USD1.2870/50 to a midsized French name. Proprietary stops reported in place on a break of USD1.2800.
An absence of liquidity heading into U.S. public holiday poses greatest risk for AUDUSD offshore, while euro-zone data could also pose downside risk. The local currency could be searching for direction during offshore trading, as the U.S. is closed for the annual Thanksgiving holiday, meaning already sparse market conditions could get even worse, analysts said.
There is no US data scheduled to be released through the end of the week due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. As a result, US markets will be closed tomorrow and will stop trading early today and on Friday.
Most important events of the day
| Date | Time:GMT | Currency | Indicator | Forecast | Prior |
| 11/27/2008 | 0:30 | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure q/q | 0.50% | 7.40% |
| 11/27/2008 | 2:00 | NZD | NBNZ Business Confidence | -42.3 | |
| 11/27/2008 | 7:00 | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | -1.70% | -1.30% |
| 11/27/2008 | 8:15 | CHF | Employment Level | 3.87M | 3.92M |
| 11/27/2008 | 8:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -4K | -26K |
| 11/27/2008 | 9:00 | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 8.10% | 8.60% |
| 11/27/2008 | 9:00 | EUR | Private Loans y/y | 8.00% | 8.50% |
| 11/27/2008 | 10:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -25 | -24 |
| 11/27/2008 | 15:30 | EUR | ECB President Trichet Speaks | ||
| 11/27/2008 | 16:00 | CHF | SNB Chairman Roth Speaks | ||
| 11/27/2008 | 21:45 | NZD | Building Consents m/m | 8.40% | |
| 11/27/2008 | 23:15 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI | 42.2 | |
| 11/27/2008 | 23:30 | JPY | Household Spending y/y | -3.40% | -2.30% |
| 11/27/2008 | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 1.30% | 1.50% |
| 11/27/2008 | 23:30 | JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 1.90% | 2.30% |
| 11/27/2008 | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| 11/27/2008 | 23:50 | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -2.50% | 1.10% |
| 11/27/2008 | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | -0.90% | -0.30% |
