Previous session overview
On Friday, the dollar ended little changed against most of its major rivals.
On Friday, EURUSD trading found a new equilibrium. There was no follow thorough price action after Trichet signaling on Thursday that the ECB doesn't have the a priori intention to raise rates in the months to come. The pair held a sideways trading pattern in the 1.57 area and closed the session at 1.5706.
The Sterling traded within a tight range but with a slightly offered tone dipping briefly twice below the 1.9800 level. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9796 and a high of 1.9848 before closing the day at 1.9928.
The Japanese yen continued to fall this week as business confidence slid to the lowest in almost five years. The U.S. currency moved inside a tight range of 106.60-106.88 and 1.0232-1.0277 against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc respectively in thin trading on Friday due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
The Australian dollar weakened in Asian trading Monday knocked lower by broad strength in the U.S. dollar after the Independence Day holiday.
Market expectation
USDCHF remains neutral to positive while the key support at 1.0149/22 holds. Expect that further gains toward 1.0376, and then a break of the key resistance at 1.0489.
The euro is lower Monday and has more technical room for correcting lower although the aggressive selloff last week may soon look overdone. EURUSD is back under pressure, after rate managed to recover in early Europe to USD1.5645/50 off early lows of USD1.5627, with rate currently trading around USD1.5623. Bids have been reported in place between USD1.5620/10, more between USD1.5580/70, with interim interest noted to USD1.5600. Offers remain in place at USD1.5645/50.
GBPUSD falling on USD buying, recently weaker U.K. indicators; may continue decline for now. USD supported today as players buying back after U.S. long-weekend.
Traders saying that USDJPY may rise more but resistance likely is in mid 107s.
This week a key issue for currency markets will be whether there will be further paring of recent euro gains versus the dollar, given the erosion of hawkish ECB rate.
This week, the euro zone data calendar is thin with only the industrial production data scheduled for release.
Most important events of the day
| Date | Time:GMT | Currency | Indicator | Forecast | Prior |
| 07/07/2008 | 00:30 | JPY | BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks | ||
| 07/07/2008 | 05:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| 07/07/2008 | 08:30 | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence | 2.5 | 5.2 |
| 07/07/2008 | 08:30 | GBP | Industrial Production m/m | -0.10% | 0.20% |
| 07/07/2008 | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | 0.00% | 0.10% |
| 07/07/2008 | 10:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | 0.30% | -0.80% |
| 07/07/2008 | 12:30 | CAD | Building Permits m/m | -5.70% | 14.50% |
| 07/07/2008 | 14:30 | CAD | BOC Business Outlook Survey | ||
| 07/07/2008 | 22:00 | NZD | NZIER Business Confidence | -64 | |
| 07/07/2008 | 23:01 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.20% | |
| 07/07/2008 | 23:50 | JPY | M2+CD Money Supply y/y | 2.00% | 2.00% |
