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Daily Forex Overview
Fri, Aug 1 2008, 08:47 GMT
by Raivis Zile
Previous session overview
On Thursday, the dollar declined versus the euro and the yen but recovered some of the losses it suffered on poor data.
U.S. Dollar Trading was initially sold off after economic data disappointed but then strengthened during the US session to finish little changed ahead of today's July Job announcement. US 2Q GDP came in at 1.9% while markets had been expecting a number in the region of 2.2-2.4%. Also soft, weekly Jobless claims at 448K vs. expectations of 395K the highest report in 4 years.
Despite a pop higher during the US trading session, the Euro remains soft following a morning of mixed economic data. On one hand, the number of unemployed workers in Germany fell in line with expectations by 20,000 while estimates for Euro-zone CPI show that price growth accelerated to an annual pace of 4.1 percent. EURUSD soared 90 pips to 1.5700 on the US GDP/claims but later fell to around 1.5640 after the ECB news and then eased to just below 1.5600.
The British pound remains resilient against a sliding USD, though lower against the euro as falling UK house prices and record-low consumer confidence underlined economic weakness. Figures showed UK house prices marked their ninth straight monthly fall in June, taking the annual figure to its lowest since the data series began in 1991. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9783 and a high of 1.9828 before closing the day at 1.9825.
USDJPY sank 70 pips on the US data, trading down to a low of 107.57 before regaining some ground later on. USDJPY traded with a low of 107.57 and a high of 108.38 before closing the day around 107.89.
Market expectation
Asian funds selling AUDJPY, NZDJPY as pairs break long-term technical support level. The pairs are now trading below the support levels not broken in July. So many players are squaring long positions to take in profits.
Investors are awaiting the much-anticipated releases of U.S. jobs and manufacturing business index data due later in the global day. If the results of the two data turn out to be stronger than expected, the dollar will rise broadly.
The market is more into selling on euro rallies rather than buying on the dips.
Most important events of the day
| Date | Time:GMT | Currency | Indicator | Forecast | Prior |
| 8/1/2008 | 0:30 | AUD | TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.50% | |
| 8/1/2008 | 6:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | -0.50% | 0.50% |
| 8/1/2008 | 6:30 | AUD | Index of Commodity Prices y/y | 37.80% | |
| 8/1/2008 | 8:00 | EUR | Manufacturing PMI (r) | 47.5 | 47.5 |
| 8/1/2008 | 8:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 45.5 | 45.8 |
| 8/1/2008 | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 8/1/2008 | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.60% | 5.50% |
| 8/1/2008 | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Employment Change | -75K | -62K |
| 8/1/2008 | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Index | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| 8/1/2008 | 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending m/m | -0.30% | -0.40% |
| 8/1/2008 | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 88 | 91.5 |
Published on Fri, Aug 1 2008, 08:49 GMT
Archive
- Daily Forex Overview
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 08:25 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 08:13 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 08:44 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Thu, Nov 27 2008, 10:39 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 08:45 GMT
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