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Daily Forex Overview
Mon, Jun 30 2008, 07:44 GMT
by Raivis Zile
Previous session overview
On Friday, the dollar fell to three-week lows against the euro and yen, as falling U.S. stock markets and record-high oil prices sullied the outlook for both the greenback and the overall U.S. economy.
On Friday, EURUSD entered calmer waters and settled in rather tight 1.5720/80 trading range, at least until a late session dollar selling spree pushed it close to the 1.58 level. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.5793, up from the 1.5756 close on Thursday.
USDJPY traded quietly in London but then started to look soggy again in NY as US equities headed for another poor close. The pair dipped below 106 at one point and closed at 106.14. USDJPY traded with a low of 105.86 and a high of 107.21 before closing the day around 106.23.
The Sterling broke above 1.99 on the back of record Oil and aggressive cable buying. UK Q1 GDP was revised lower from 0.4% to 0.3%. The current account came in sharply higher than expected at -8.4Bln vs. -12Bln forecasted as capital flows out of the UK slowed on falling incomes. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9807 and a high of 1.9952 before closing the day at 1.9927.
The Australian dollar was stronger late Monday after continued Wall Street weakness and soft economic data weighed on the greenback and as commodity prices rallied further.
Market expectation
The Australian currency is now back above US$0.9600 and within striking distance of the long-term US$0.9650 resistance level, which analysts say needs to be broken before for the commodity currency to run to parity with the U.S. dollar.
USD falling vs JPY as European traders come in, with growing risk aversion amid late declines in Asian shares.
USDCHF affinity seems within reach again, with CHF set to continue to draw strength from nervous financial markets.
An analyst saying that euro is a safer and more solid investment than the dollar.
The euro is firm today after shaking off earlier weakness, and now aims for resistance at around USD1.5815.
Today, attention will turn to the euro zone CPI estimate for the month of June. Based on the German, Spanish and Belgian inflation data, euro zone headline inflation may come out as high as 4% Y/Y. This will seal the outcome of this Thursday's ECB meeting, where the ECB is all but expected to hike rates to 4.25%.
Most important events of the day
| Date | Time:GMT | Currency | Indicator | Forecast | Prior |
| 30/06/2008 | 00:30 | AUD | TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.30% | |
| 30/06/2008 | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 30/06/2008 | 03:00 | NZD | Business Confidence | -49.7 | |
| 30/06/2008 | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | -3.70% | -8.70% |
| 30/06/2008 | 08:30 | GBP | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 30/06/2008 | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 52K | 58K |
| 30/06/2008 | 08:30 | GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 7.0B | 7.3B |
| 30/06/2008 | 09:00 | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 3.90% | 3.70% |
| 30/06/2008 | 09:00 | EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 30/06/2008 | 12:30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.30% | -0.20% |
| 30/06/2008 | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI | 48.2 | 49.1 |
| 30/06/2008 | 23:30 | AUD | Manufacturing PMI | 51.2 | |
| 30/06/2008 | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index | 8 | 12 |
| 30/06/2008 | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturers Index | 3 | 11 |
Published on Mon, Jun 30 2008, 07:47 GMT
Archive
- Daily Forex Overview
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 08:25 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 08:13 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 08:44 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Thu, Nov 27 2008, 10:39 GMT - Daily Forex Overview
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 08:45 GMT
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