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Daily Forex Overview

Mon, Jun 23 2008, 08:04 GMT
by Raivis Zile

Dukascopy Swiss FX Group


Previous session overview

On Friday, the economic calendar was empty, but this didn't prevent EUR/USD from moving higher throughout the session. At least for now, the global uncertainty due ongoing high oil prices and renewed credit woes was seen as (slightly) dollar negative even if the losses on European stock markets recently were even more pronounced than for most US indices. In the current environment of low economic and financial visibility the interest rate support is apparently also a supportive factor for the single currency. So, EUR/USD moved higher throughout most of Friday's trading session and closed the day at 1.5606, compared to 1.5505 on Thursday. The uncertainty going into this weekend's oil meeting in Saudi Arabia was an additional negative factor for the dollar.


Market expectation

Today, the US economic calendar is empty. However, the European calendar contains the advanced reading of the June PMI surveys and the German IFO release. We would be rather surprised to see these indicators bring much good news on the European economy. In this respect it would be interesting to see the market reaction in case of a steep fall in the Ifo or in case the European PMI would come out below the key 50 mark. Oil and the credit crisis might continue to be (slightly) negative for the dollar; however, the European data probably don't warrant a euro bullish sentiment either. The Jeddah oil summit didn't yield any perspective for a quick solution to the high oil prices, but at first sight the impact on markets in general and on the currency market in particular is rather limited this morning.


Most important events of the day

Date Time:GMT Currency Indicator Forecast Prior
23/06/200801:30AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m -0.60%
23/06/200803:04NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 8.20%
23/06/200807:30EUR German Manufacturing PMI (p) 53.253.6
23/06/200807:30EUR German Services PMI (p) 53.153.8
23/06/200808:00EUR Services PMI (p) 50.550.6
23/06/200808:00EUR Manufacturing PMI (p) 50.250.5
23/06/200808:00EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index 96.397.3
23/06/200808:00EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index 102.5103.5
23/06/200820:05CAD Gov Council Member Kennedy Speaks


Archive

Dukascopy Swiss FX Group  | ICC, Route de Pre-Bois 20; 1215 Geneva 15
http://www.dukascopy.com/ | info@dukascopy.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.


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