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Daily Forex Overview

Fri, Nov 20 2009, 11:08 GMT
by Raivis Zile

Dukascopy Swiss FX Group

Previous session overview

The euro fell against the yen and the dollar in Asia on Friday, as sluggish Asian shares reduced risk appetite and boosted demand for the safe-haven U.S. and Japanese currencies, while Japanese exporters sold the European unit to settle accounts.

If global share prices continue to languish next week, the euro could head lower toward JPY130.00 and USD1.4600, some traders said. The European currency was trading at JPY132.61 and USD1.4919 at 0450 GMT, lower than its late New York levels of JPY132.85 and USD1.4925 Thursday.

Meanwhile, the dollar was almost unchanged against the yen, trading at JPY88.94 at 0450 GMT, from JPY89.03 in New York late Thursday.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback's moves against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, was at 75.271 from 75.264 in New York.

Thursday's global stocks decline caused the euro and other higher-yielding currencies to slip against the dollar and yen. The view now is that riskier assets are falling out of favor on concerns about the slow pace at which the world economy is exiting recession.

The Pound was under pressure on most pairs as the risk sensitive currency struggled in a souring global market. Oil was under pressure and continued bad press about UK banks weighed on the Pound. October Retail Sales were at 0.4% vs. 0.5% forecast.

The Australian dollar meandered through the Asia session on Friday with profit-taking ahead of year-end increasingly exerting an influence on trading.

Market expectation

Major currency pairs are trading in tight ranges Friday amid muted trading due to reluctance to take large positions ahead of the three-day weekend in Japan.

The USD1.4910 level again provided support with rate edging back up to USD1.4930. Rate currently trades around USD1.4922. Offers placed between USD1.4930/35, a break to open a move on toward USD1.4950. Support USD1.4910, more USD1.4885/80. A break of this latter level too open a deeper move toward USD1.4850/40, with traders Thursday noting strong demand emerging around the USD1.4840 level, suggested linked to a USD1.48/1.51 structure (expires 1500GMT).

For Pound strong demand interest remains in place on the approach to USD1.6600, a break below to expose stops, which if triggered to open a deeper move toward USD1.6580/70. Resistance seen placed at USD1.6675/80.

European stocks are expected to open higher Friday, with investors looking to snap up some quick bargains following Thursday's sell-off. However, concerns about the strength of the global economic recovery still exist.

Most important events of the day

Published on  Fri, Nov 20 2009, 11:08 GMT

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