Whilst the official unemployment rate in September spiked from 5.1 percent to 5.4 percent, labour market figures released yesterday were generally viewed as a positive by the majority of investors. Given the monthly jobs data showed more than 14 000 people entered the workforce this surprisingly strong read was offset by an increase in labour force participation hence the spike in the underlying figure. Jumping to a late session high of 1.0293 against its US Counterpart the Australian dollar appears a little heavy at levels close to the 1.03 handle. With local data flows drying up in the short-term the RBA is once again expected to cut its official benchmark from 3.25% when they meet again next month. Meanwhile this morning the Aussie Dollar is trading higher by half a US Cent at 1.0262
- We expect a range today of 1.0220 – 1.0300
New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar has remained stubborn against its US Counterpart over the past 24 hours with ranges being limited to small 30 basis points movements either side of the 0.8160 level. Whilst the kiwi received positive leads from across the Tasman after jobs data showed more people found work in September the move higher to 0.8204 was a relatively short lived one. In overnight action weekly unemployment claims in the US, which beat expectation were still not enough to provide direction for a currency which appears confused on where it’s heading. With a quite end to the week expected investors look towards Inflationary data which is due to be released next Tuesday. Opening virtually unchanged this morning the New Zealand currently buys 81.74 US Cents.
- We expect a range today of 0.8130 – 0.8210
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound opens noticeably stronger against its US Counterpart this morning amid ongoing speculation that Spain will shortly be seeking a bailout. In a strange move the market continues to view any bad news for Spain as good news for Europe as it increases the likelihood they will tap into the 500 billion Euros set aside by the ECB to help debt ravaged nations. In other happenings, rumours continue to circulate that rising inflationary pressures are likely to limit the amount of stimulus the BOE can provide. Opening stronger against a handful of currencies the Sterling has appreciated overnight against both the Greenback (1.6047) and the Kiwi (1.9628) whilst having lost ground against the Aussie (1.5632)
- We expect a range today of 1.5590 – 1.5670
Having a surprisingly muted effect on the underlying shared currency Standard & Poor lowered Spain’s debt rating to one level above junk. Citing increased economic and political risks, such downgrades have only added fuel to the argument that it would be better for all involved if Spain were to put their hand up for a bailout sooner rather than later. Trading between a 24 hour range of (1.2824 – 1.2951) against its US Counterpart the Euro opens stronger this morning at 1.2928 as the forces behind optimistic hope outweigh the pessimistic economic fundamentals. Jumping across to the world’s largest economy, US Stocks received a boost after weekly unemployment claims fell to 339 000, comfortably beating expectation. In other results the US trade deficit widened in September to 44.2 Billion. In a sign that the global economic slowdown is lowering the demand for American-made goods the figure marks the first widening of the trade gap in four months. Meanwhile looking ahead this evening investor’s attention is likely to remain in the US given the release of Consumer Sentiment and PPI figures.
- AUD: No Data Today
- NZD: NO Data Today
- JPY: BOJ Skirakawa speaks
- GBP: CB Leading Index m/m
- EUR: Industrial Production m/m
- USD: PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Federal Budget Balance