The EUR depreciated 0.3 percent and traded at 1.3060

Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to our first Daily FX Report this week. The JPY enforced versus all of its most-traded currency counterparts after Asian stocks weakened and the demand for so-called haven assets increased.

However, we wish you a successful trading start into this week and hope you had a relaxing Easter weekend.

Market Review – Fundamental Perspective

Pushed by the latest Japanese business figures showing a current-account surplus and influenced by the growing concerns on a North Korean rocket program, the demand for the JPY increased and the JPY advanced against all of its currency counterparts. After the record deficit in January, the surplus of 1.18 trillion JPY in February was more than the expected 1.12 trillion JPY and strengthened the status of the JPY as a secure currency.

In contrast, the 17 nation’s currency dropped down to a four weeks low versus the JPY as released German economic data occupied a decrease in exports in February. Germany is the biggest economy in the euro area and according to a Bloomberg survey on tomorrow released figures; the exports will shrink 1.2 percent from a 2.4 percent advance in January. Weakening data of the German business have a negative influence on the EUR.

Also the USD declined against the JPY before this week published report will reveal the shrinkage of the U.S. inflation. Regarding of a survey among economists, the estimates of the U.S. consumer prices forecast an increase of 0.3 percent in March, after having shown a 0.4 percent rise in February. The Labor Department will publish these data on the 13th of April. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve announced retention of its key benchmark at record low between zero and 0.25 percent until 2014 to keep the economic stimulus on the U.S. economy. But market analysts expressed that the risk appetite of many investors remain restrained as long as the focus is on a feared recession of the European economy.

Therefore the EUR tumbled 0.4 percent to 106.18 JPY, the weakest level since the 7th of March, while the USD dropped 0.2 percent to 81.52 against the JPY. Versus the USD, the EUR depreciated 0.3 percent and traded at 1.3060.

Daily Technical Analysis - Our Focus Currencies for Today

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

From its low on 14th of March, the EUR has been steadily strengthening versus the USD above a bullish trend line. But the rise has been stopped at the strong resistance level around 1.33788 and after a final rebound the pair weakened steeply inside an Andrew’s pitchfork down to the support level around 1.30511. Currently, the drop of the EUR/USD was haltered there. As the Stochastic is providing a rather bearish signal, we might see further losses if the bears break through the support level.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hours)

AUD/CAD (4 Hours)

After having failed to stay above the former support level around 1.06189 on the 5th of March, the AUD/CAD currency pair has been tumbling below a bearish Fibonacci fan to its support level around 1.01830. There the pair experienced demand and it was able to strengthen above the next support level around 1.02263. Currently, the rate is trading just along the middle Bollinger band, while the DeMarker indicates losses. Therefore, falls to the next support level around 1.01830 might be seen.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hours)