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Currency and Stock Markets Weekly Outlook
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Economic outlook
Mon, Jul 28 2008, 14:37 GMT
by Adam Narczewski
In terms of macroeconomic publications, the upcoming week is vacation time. Only till Thursday since on Friday investors are waiting for the bomb – U.S labor market reports.
On Tuesday, worth attention will the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Last Friday’s University of Michigan index was much better than expected. Will the Conference Board’s index also surprise investors? On Wednesday, I will pay attention to two reports. The first from the Euro zone – unemployment rate (no change expected from the current 4.0%) and the American ADP Nonfarm employment change. The ADP report somehow can be a good prediction of what the Friday payrolls will be.
The end of the week will be much more interesting. On Thursday, early in the morning we will get news from Australia – retail sales and trade balance. Those playing on the AUD will certainly be expecting those numbers. Worth attention is also the Swiss CPI report. It seems that inflation is not a problem to the Swiss economy (expected drop to -0.5% on a monthly basis). In the afternoon, investors will get the Canadian GDP (m/m) and the U.S GDP (q/q). The second of those will certainly be anxiously awaited.
Friday will be the day we are waiting on. The U.S will release its labor market report. Unemployment rate is expected to increase and nonfarm payrolls are forecasted to drop even more. As the housing market might be slowly recuperating, there are no signs that the labor market crisis might end soon. From other markets, reports that can cause some movements include The U.S ISM Manufacturing report as well as the British PMI.
The whole week should be rather slow and before Friday there are no publications that can shock the world. Again, the U.S labor market report will be crucial and will decide on the short-term movements of indices and the dollar.
Published on Mon, Jul 28 2008, 14:38 GMT
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