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Currency and Stock Markets Weekly Outlook

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Low volatility on equities markets

Wed, May 14 2008, 10:34 GMT
by Adam Narczewski

X-Trade Brokers, XTB

The beginning of the week on stock equities markets can be described by one word - boring.

Stock markets are in consolidation since the beginning of the week. There are no strong impulses that can move markets. Yesterday’s session on Wall Street ended at the levels it began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.34% to 12,832 while the S&P 500 ended 0.04% lower at 1,403. More active were investors in Asia moving the Japanese Nikkei 225 up by 1.18% to 14,119. Little was going on in Warsaw with the WIG20 losing 0.3% to 3,024.

Investors were waiting for macroeconomic reports with the U.S retail sales being the most important. The reading showed that retail sales declined by 0.2% on a monthly basis (same as forecast) but core retail sales (excluding auto sales) increased by 0.5% (0.2% FC). Investors focused on the second part of the report, on the better news. The market did not react very strong nor it did to Ben Bernanke’s speech. The Fed’s Chairman reminded that the situation is tough and that the U.S Central Bank will keep pumping money into the financial until it is necessary. What is not helping the stock markets to rebound are also high oil prices staying well over 120 USD per barrel.

Investors in Poland were hoping for a good day, after the U.S indices closed at +1.0% the previous night. In reality, there is too little capital on the floor to move the market. Foreign capital is already gone from the Warsaw Stock Exchange and individual investors have too little power. The main index, the WIG20, moved up after better-than-expected U.S retail sales report but after a neutral opening on Wall Street, the market retreated and ended below the day’s opening. The problem is still low volatility with volume reaching only 1 billion zlotys.

Further moves of stock markets might depend on inflation reports being published this week. Today, the American and Polish CPI will be published while tomorrow we expect such report from the Euro zone.

Published on  Wed, May 14 2008, 10:35 GMT