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Currency Speculations
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July 1, 2008
Tue, Jul 1 2008, 07:32 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
There've been some very tough 36 hours.
First off, I hesitated to dump the entire short yen exposure as soon as Sunday evening, and that cost me dearly. Eventually I liquidated about one third of that exposure yesterday, and the rest of it I did a few minutes ago at far more advantageous levels.
I also left behind the sizable long USD/CAD position taken on June 10, half of it yesterday and half of it this morning. The entry timing happened to be unfortunate, minutes before Canada's central bank would leave interest rates unchanged June 10, stating that: 'However, the balance of risks to the Bank's April projection for inflation in Canada has shifted slightly to the upside'.
I still have a bullish view of the US currency against the Canadian dollar in the longer run, though I'm sure I'll be able to put the money where my mouth under better circumstances than the current ones.
Actually in both market cases I think I was in the right place, yet with the wrong kind of leverage. Even though my big picture views may still prove correct, the exposure I held was so huge that any short-term fluctuations could have brought severe equity drawdowns.
Wiping the slate clean gives me now time to reconsider and rebuild confidence.
Published on Tue, Jul 1 2008, 07:36 GMT
Archive
- September 15, 2008
Published On Mon, Sep 15 2008, 14:16 GMT - September 11, 2008
Published On Thu, Sep 11 2008, 09:18 GMT - September 8, 2008
Published On Mon, Sep 8 2008, 14:59 GMT - September 2, 2008
Published On Tue, Sep 2 2008, 11:46 GMT - August 28, 2008
Published On Thu, Aug 28 2008, 21:39 GMT
Mihai Nichisoiu
| Bucharest, Romania
http://www.mihainichisoiu.com | mihainichisoiu@gmail.com
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