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Currency Speculations
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June 24, 2008
Tue, Jun 24 2008, 22:51 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I'm leaving tomorrow for a short, 5-day vacation on the beautiful Prahova Valley, some 100 miles from Bucharest. I'll have the proper logistics at hand, however, so that I can keep in touch with the markets full time.
First off, I guess I'll be running a heavy short yen exposure into the FOMC rates decision, but I'm watching all positions involved with great care.
Even though the US stock market has been sliding recently, that hardly looked like a genuinely impulsive event and the Japanese yen has no longer reacted positively. The media seems full of pessimism with regard to stocks - but pessimism of the already known kind, I reckon. That adds to my confidence of being bearish on the yen since in the short run I think the main US stock indices will not sink decisively under their January lows.
In the big picture - unless a remarkably negative surprise hits on short notice or some terrible disruption occurs on a global level - I see the main US stock indices further moving sideways. And so, if my perception is correct, soon the path of least resistance in the US stock market is going to once again favor the buyers - with all the more negative consequences for the Japanese currency.
Another position I hold, taken on June 10, bets on the already foreseen appreciation of the US dollar against the Canadian counterpart (I'll write about this in a few days).
Published on Tue, Jun 24 2008, 23:50 GMT
Archive
- September 15, 2008
Published On Mon, Sep 15 2008, 14:16 GMT - September 11, 2008
Published On Thu, Sep 11 2008, 09:18 GMT - September 8, 2008
Published On Mon, Sep 8 2008, 14:59 GMT - September 2, 2008
Published On Tue, Sep 2 2008, 11:46 GMT - August 28, 2008
Published On Thu, Aug 28 2008, 21:39 GMT
Mihai Nichisoiu
| Bucharest, Romania
http://www.mihainichisoiu.com | mihainichisoiu@gmail.com
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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