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Currency Speculations
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September 15, 2008
Mon, Sep 15 2008, 14:16 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Early Friday I dumped a massive long US dollar exposure built against the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar, for a marginal profit. The positions happened to be of the 'make or break' type, and as the European transacting time began on Friday I sensed the 'make' part might have already been compromised.
I also liquidated today about 70% of a heavy long EUR/GBP exposure (its breakeven point is at 0.8050), this time for a severe drawdown across my accounts.
Published on Mon, Sep 15 2008, 14:16 GMT
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September 11, 2008
Thu, Sep 11 2008, 09:18 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Since September 2 I've been building a massive long US dollar exposure against the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. I added the most recent positions late yesterday and in the early European transacting time today - as I believe there is further room for the US currency to even accelerate its appreciation across the board.
Published on Thu, Sep 11 2008, 09:18 GMT
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September 8, 2008
Mon, Sep 8 2008, 14:59 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I'm keeping my heavy short sterling exposure via the EUR/GBP.
Published on Mon, Sep 8 2008, 14:59 GMT
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September 2, 2008
Tue, Sep 2 2008, 11:46 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Early yesterday I added to my already heavy short sterling positions taken via the EUR/GBP on August 25 and August 28 - and therefore, my exposure in this market is right now at a significant level.
Published on Tue, Sep 2 2008, 11:46 GMT
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August 28, 2008
Thu, Aug 28 2008, 21:39 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
In line with what I reiterated on August 19, on Monday I finally felt compelled to short sterling via the EUR/GBP - doing so actually for the 4th time since November 12 last year.
I increased exposure early this morning - and my position may turn even heavier once the market starts telling me I'm right.
Published on Thu, Aug 28 2008, 21:39 GMT
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August 19, 2008
Tue, Aug 19 2008, 14:15 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Early last month I assumed the Euro was at the time in a good position to resume its impulsive appreciation against the British pound. That judgment may have been a bit premature - but I still think big-picture fundamentals continue to support the scenario of sterling further losing ground versus the Euro (as well as the US dollar).
Under certain circumstances I will have no hesitation to place heavy bets against the pound via the EUR/GBP - doing so actually for the 4th time since November 12 last year.
Published on Tue, Aug 19 2008, 14:15 GMT
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August 14, 2008
Thu, Aug 14 2008, 13:53 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
In yesterday's European transacting time I dumped some relatively small long Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 and FTSE 100 positions (opened July 21) for a marginal profit. In the absence of an impulsive recovery of the US and European stock markets, I decided I should make all funds available to finance the newly placed US dollar bullish bet.
Published on Thu, Aug 14 2008, 13:53 GMT
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August 8, 2008
Fri, Aug 8 2008, 14:06 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I felt compelled Tuesday and Wednesday to take heavy long USD/CAD positions at market, whereas yesterday I mentioned that the next currency I'd most likely decide to short versus the US dollar might be the British pound.
The question now isn't when and where I want to close the positions - it's when and where I'm going to triple them.
Published on Fri, Aug 8 2008, 14:06 GMT
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August 7, 2008
Thu, Aug 7 2008, 14:20 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
After having built massive long USD/CAD positions over the last 48 hours, the next currency I'd most likely decide to short versus the US dollar may be the British pound.
Published on Thu, Aug 7 2008, 14:20 GMT
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August 5, 2008
Tue, Aug 5 2008, 13:54 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Today I feel compelled to once again start testing the scenario of an accelerating appreciation of the US dollar against the Canadian currency being underway. I may be facing one of the most important market bets of the year.
Published on Tue, Aug 5 2008, 13:54 GMT
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August 4, 2008
Mon, Aug 4 2008, 14:13 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
My most recent attempt to take benefit of a depreciating yen failed again, as a long AUD/JPY position opened July 21 at 104.40 was stopped out last week at about 101.50. I also dumped a long AUD/NZD bet (opened July 21) near breakeven.
On the other hand I'm keeping a long European stocks exposure, although the positions involved are rather small.
Published on Mon, Aug 4 2008, 14:13 GMT
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July 30, 2008
Wed, Jul 30 2008, 19:27 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I'm still holding the positions highlighted last Friday - even though their consolidated result may have relatively little impact to my trading accounts.
Published on Wed, Jul 30 2008, 19:27 GMT
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July 25, 2008
Fri, Jul 25 2008, 18:22 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I will be holding (over the weekend, at the very least) long AUD/NZD, long AUD/JPY and long Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 bets placed early Monday.
Published on Fri, Jul 25 2008, 18:22 GMT
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July 20, 2008
Sun, Jul 20 2008, 22:23 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I'm once again contemplating the possibility of the Japanese yen being on the verge of further losing ground versus the other major currencies. I'm also of the opinion that the main US and European stock markets may have already found an interim bottom.
On the other hand, I'll be watching out for the Australian dollar breaking out even higher against the New Zealand counterpart - an event which, I think, may take place over the following hours.
Published on Sun, Jul 20 2008, 22:23 GMT
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July 15, 2008
Tue, Jul 15 2008, 21:58 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I hesitated to go short the US dollar last night, and I hesitated to place a bullish bet on the main US stock indexes a couple of hours ago right at day's close.
But then again, I can still allow myself the great luxury of waiting.
Published on Tue, Jul 15 2008, 21:58 GMT
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July 11, 2008
Fri, Jul 11 2008, 10:59 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I think the Euro is now in a good position to resume its impulsive appreciation against the British pound.
I'm almost prepared to bet against sterling via the EUR/GBP for the 4th time since November 12 last year.
Published on Fri, Jul 11 2008, 10:59 GMT
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July 8, 2008
Tue, Jul 8 2008, 21:11 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I remain aside for the time being, but have my eyes zooming in a wide series of a global markets - out of which the Canadian dollar continues to stand upfront.
Published on Tue, Jul 8 2008, 21:11 GMT
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July 3, 2008
Thu, Jul 3 2008, 10:26 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
It's intriguing how well supported some yen crosses have stayed recently, despite the US and particularly the Japanese stock market's losses.
After dumping a heavy short yen exposure earlier this week - as short-term adverse fluctuations could have brought me severe equity drawdowns - I may pop back in favoring long CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY positions.
I'm also considering going long the Euro against the British pound - it'd be for the 4th time since last November.
Published on Thu, Jul 3 2008, 10:26 GMT
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July 1, 2008
Tue, Jul 1 2008, 07:32 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
There've been some very tough 36 hours.
First off, I hesitated to dump the entire short yen exposure as soon as Sunday evening, and that cost me dearly. Eventually I liquidated about one third of that exposure yesterday, and the rest of it I did a few minutes ago at far more advantageous levels.
I also left behind the sizable long USD/CAD position taken on June 10, half of it yesterday and half of it this morning. The entry timing happened to be unfortunate, minutes before Canada's central bank would leave interest rates unchanged June 10, stating that: 'However, the balance of risks to the Bank's April projection for inflation in Canada has shifted slightly to the upside'.
I still have a bullish view of the US currency against the Canadian dollar in the longer run, though I'm sure I'll be able to put the money where my mouth under better circumstances than the current ones.
Actually in both market cases I think I was in the right place, yet with the wrong kind of leverage. Even though my big picture views may still prove correct, the exposure I held was so huge that any short-term fluctuations could have brought severe equity drawdowns.
Wiping the slate clean gives me now time to reconsider and rebuild confidence.
Published on Tue, Jul 1 2008, 07:32 GMT
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June 29, 2008
Sun, Jun 29 2008, 21:31 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I keep the developments in the US and Japanese stock markets under very close scrutiny, as I continue to hold on to a heavy short yen exposure which I started to build late last month. The very next hours, I believe, will be key toward deciding whether to hold further or rather start liquidating.
Published on Sun, Jun 29 2008, 21:31 GMT
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June 24, 2008
Tue, Jun 24 2008, 22:51 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I'm leaving tomorrow for a short, 5-day vacation on the beautiful Prahova Valley, some 100 miles from Bucharest. I'll have the proper logistics at hand, however, so that I can keep in touch with the markets full time.
First off, I guess I'll be running a heavy short yen exposure into the FOMC rates decision, but I'm watching all positions involved with great care.
Even though the US stock market has been sliding recently, that hardly looked like a genuinely impulsive event and the Japanese yen has no longer reacted positively. The media seems full of pessimism with regard to stocks - but pessimism of the already known kind, I reckon. That adds to my confidence of being bearish on the yen since in the short run I think the main US stock indices will not sink decisively under their January lows.
In the big picture - unless a remarkably negative surprise hits on short notice or some terrible disruption occurs on a global level - I see the main US stock indices further moving sideways. And so, if my perception is correct, soon the path of least resistance in the US stock market is going to once again favor the buyers - with all the more negative consequences for the Japanese currency.
Another position I hold, taken on June 10, bets on the already foreseen appreciation of the US dollar against the Canadian counterpart (I'll write about this in a few days).
Published on Tue, Jun 24 2008, 22:51 GMT
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June 22, 2008
Sun, Jun 22 2008, 22:37 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I think I'll be holding on to the short yen exposure I started to build late last month.
Published on Sun, Jun 22 2008, 22:37 GMT
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June 17, 2008
Tue, Jun 17 2008, 12:15 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I disclosed late yesterday the numbers and premises of a heavy short yen exposure which I quite confidently started to build on May 30. But the way the sterling markets have just reacted to Mervyn King's open letter to Alistair Darling forced me into reconsidering the GBP/JPY part of that exposure.
Late yesterday, size of the GBP/JPY bets was accounting for about 80% of my overall yen exposure. However, a few moments ago I decided to liquidate in the profit zone the first two out of the total three GBP/JPY positions (taken at around 209.20 and 210.50 on May 30 and June 11 respectively). Only the third, most recently opened GBP/JPY position (also the heavier one, taken at around 211.90 on June 16) has survived today's portfolio adjustment.
At the same time I opened two brand new short yen positions, via going long the EUR/JPY and the CHF/JPY at around 167.60 and 103.70 respectively. So that right now the GBP/JPY accounts for only about 40% of my consolidated yen exposure.
What I've just done actively responds only to the perspective that sterling may further underperform the Swiss franc and particularly the Euro. It does not alleviate the risks of a still massive yen exposure affecting my trading accounts one way or the other, though.
Published on Tue, Jun 17 2008, 12:15 GMT
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June 16, 2008
Mon, Jun 16 2008, 22:20 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I noted here Tuesday May 27: 'The way buyers seem to be slowly taking over in the Japanese yen crosses is also catching my attention. Except for having already taken a long position in the AUD/JPY a couple of hours ago, however, I am not yet ready to commit further funds in order to finance a longer-term position'.
That confidence thing changed only 72 hours later, though. On Friday May 30, minutes before the weekend, I shorted the Japanese yen via some of its most popular crosses - buying the EUR/JPY at around 164.20, the GBP/JPY at around 209.20, and the NZD/JPY at around 82.70.
Last Wednesday (June 11) I felt compelled to double my short yen exposure - and did it solely via the GBP/JPY, buying the cross at around 210.50. Finally, I redoubled the entire exposure today in the early European time - and did it again solely by going long the British pound against the Japanese yen, at around 211.90.
Holding these positions so far turned out to be quite a bumpy road, but I'm not yet looking for the exit door.
Published on Mon, Jun 16 2008, 22:20 GMT
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June 11, 2008
Wed, Jun 11 2008, 13:02 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I wrote Wednesday May 28 that I'd just concentrated some of my funds in a brand new long AUD/JPY position. That was taken at slightly above the 100 level, and on the following day minutes before the Q1 US GDP announcement I added to the initial position at around 101 (yet the size of the new bet was far less than what I put on the day before).
The AUD/JPY, however, would begin to fall abruptly right after the US release - and I had to dump everything at about 100.50 for a modest profit. The pair rebounded in the afterwards, and stabilized under the 101 level into the weekend - but no clear directional path has since surfaced.
The day before yesterday I engaged in buying the Australian dollar against the US currency, did it at about Monday's high. As the day moved forward, however, I became concerned about the possibility that I might have acted on thin premises - and thus I dumped the position yesterday with little hesitation.
All my latest currency bets as well as recently acting as a buyer in the oil market - these were all short-term interests on my agenda. Although some profits did emerge, the period wasn't something I could feel overenthusiastic about.
Just as I rarely feel enthusiastic about dealing in tight timeframes unless I have a very clear view of the risks involved - an observation which is becoming all the more critical now as I need my funds leverage trades about far bigger market pictures.
Published on Wed, Jun 11 2008, 13:02 GMT
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June 7, 2008
Sat, Jun 7 2008, 21:22 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Yesterday at New York Mercantile Exchange, the oil price had its biggest rally in history. Yet, the Canadian dollar barely budged versus the US currency.
That presented me with a timely opportunity to revisit the premises I noted here on May 5th and June 2nd.
Published on Sat, Jun 7 2008, 21:22 GMT
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June 2, 2008
Mon, Jun 2 2008, 21:39 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I wrote here on May 5th a few ideas about what I at that moment perceived to soon be the path of least resistance in the USD/CAD market.
With the data now at hand, I do stick to those ideas and keep this market under close scrutiny. While I cannot point out a specific configuration of fundamental as well as technical premises which could make me be a buyer of the US dollar against the Canadian currency, however I just know I haven't yet reached the point of confidently putting the money where my mouth is.
Published on Mon, Jun 2 2008, 21:39 GMT
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May 28, 2008
Wed, May 28 2008, 07:40 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
After the bears gained control of the oil and gold markets yesterday, and the US dollar began to appreciate across the board - I had to decide whether to stay long AUD/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/JPY. Since at least one of the positions involved happened to be leveraged to the hilt, I chose the 'no way' option and dumped everything for a marginal profit. I certainly didn't like the air anymore, and wanted to reconsider the charts and premises with a much clearer mind.
It is now in Europe the debut of a new day, and I've just concentrated part of the available funds - not a small part, actually - in a brand new long AUD/JPY position.
I wrote yesterday that I'm not yet ready to commit large funds in order to finance a longer-term bet in any one Japanese yen cross pair. However, I sense buyers are gradually taking over, and I do keep this 'sector' under close scrutiny.
Published on Wed, May 28 2008, 07:40 GMT
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May 27, 2008
Tue, May 27 2008, 11:51 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I still feel well about being long the Australian and the New Zealand dollar against the US currency, as a matter of fact I have just doubled my AUD/USD bet across my trading accounts.
The way buyers seem to be slowly taking over in the Japanese yen crosses is also catching my attention.
Except for having already taken a long position in the AUD/JPY a couple of hours ago, however, I am not yet ready to commit further funds in order to finance a longer-term position.
Published on Tue, May 27 2008, 11:51 GMT
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May 22, 2008
Thu, May 22 2008, 07:53 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Tuesday in the European morning I proved hesitant in my attempt to open a long position in the oil market based on daily chart observations, although I had a very strong conviction price would eventually break out of the recent congestion.
It goes without saying, that did cost me a wasting opportunity. I was an intraday buyer yesterday in the European time, and profited from a $1 underlying appreciation. Acting in a very tight timeframe, though, I felt like my hands were tied and the position happened to be relatively small. The oil price would advance another $5 in the afterwards.
On the other hand, I feel reasonably well about the long AUD/USD and NZD/USD positions opened and disclosed yesterday. As a matter of fact, I've increased the AUD/USD position just a few moments ago.
Published on Thu, May 22 2008, 07:53 GMT
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May 21, 2008
Wed, May 21 2008, 07:54 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I see strength boiling in the commodity currencies, particularly in the Australian dollar against the US counterpart. I have just placed a bet that would profit from the Australian and the New Zealand dollar going higher against the US dollar.
Published on Wed, May 21 2008, 07:54 GMT
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Great deal of interest
Thu, May 15 2008, 22:11 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
With all the hype surrounding it, I start building up a great deal of interest in the oil market.
It's only a contemplative interest for the time being - that, however, can always change very rapidly.
Published on Thu, May 15 2008, 22:11 GMT
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An anomaly called the Canadian dollar (republished)
Sat, May 10 2008, 21:34 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
In a special research note forwarded to the brokerage house I work for, titled 'An anomaly called the British pound' and dated September 13th last year, I was anticipating a significant depreciation underway of the sterling versus the Danish krone and the Euro (a revisitation of those ideas was published here on September 19th). Just one day later, on September 14th, the British lender Northern Rock Plc publicly requested emergency funding from the Bank of England.
Since those days, the British pound had come down about 20% versus the Euro - a remarkable market move from which I happened to profit handsomely.
One brand new anomaly I perceive is now unfolding in the foreign exchange comes down to the recent dynamics of the Canadian dollar, particularly versus the US dollar.
Last Wednesday I noticed here: 'With the data now at hand, I perceive that the Canadian dollar has a very good chance to turn significantly weaker versus the US dollar. I see that process starting soon, and then unfolding impulsively over several months'.
I continue to hold the perception, based on several premises, that the Canadian dollar remains in a significantly vulnerable position versus the US currency.
First of those premises refers to the monetary policy. Over the latest months, Canada has clearly been lagging the US in that regard - and I just don't see that fact changing anytime soon. If it were for both corresponding central banks to radically go for the opposite of their recent monetary policy approach, I still expect Canada to remain a laggard by far.
Secondly, just like the British currency, the Canadian dollar failed to benefit in any particular fashion from the massive depreciation suffered lately by the US dollar in most of its major markets. It failed to benefit from the fresh record highs which have been seen along a wide spectrum of commodity markets. Most of all, it failed to benefit from fresh all-time highs that have been attained recently almost on a daily basis in the oil market; although historically there has been a strong, direct correlation between the oil price and the Canadian dollar, lately that correlation has no longer been working. The oil market still displays one of the last major bubbles that hasn't yet come to at least a temporary bust; when such an event finally materializes I think the path of least resistance in the USD/CAD proxy is going to be upward.
And then, there are the charts - which, beyond tight timeframes, I believe still appear to be constructive for those buying the US currency against the Canadian counterpart.
Published on Sat, May 10 2008, 21:34 GMT
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An anomaly called the Canadian dollar
Mon, May 5 2008, 21:35 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
In a special research note forwarded to the brokerage house I work for, titled 'An anomaly called the British pound' and dated September 13th last year, I was anticipating a significant depreciation underway of the sterling versus the Danish krone and the Euro (a revisitation of those ideas was published here on September 19th). Just one day later, on September 14th, the British lender Northern Rock Plc publicly requested emergency funding from the Bank of England.
Since those days, the British pound had come down about 20% versus the Euro - a remarkable market move from which I happened to profit handsomely.
One brand new anomaly I perceive is now unfolding in the foreign exchange comes down to the recent dynamics of the Canadian dollar, particularly versus the US dollar.
Last Wednesday I noticed here: 'With the data now at hand, I perceive that the Canadian dollar has a very good chance to turn significantly weaker versus the US dollar. I see that process starting soon, and then unfolding impulsively over several months'.
I continue to hold the perception, based on several premises, that the Canadian dollar remains in a significantly vulnerable position versus the US currency.
First of those premises refers to the monetary policy. Over the latest months, Canada has clearly been lagging the US in that regard - and I just don't see that fact changing anytime soon. If it were for both corresponding central banks to radically go for the opposite of their recent monetary policy approach, I still expect Canada to remain a laggard by far.
Secondly, just like the British currency, the Canadian dollar failed to benefit in any particular fashion from the massive depreciation suffered lately by the US dollar in most of its major markets. It failed to benefit from the fresh record highs which have been seen along a wide spectrum of commodity markets. Most of all, it failed to benefit from fresh all-time highs that have been attained recently almost on a daily basis in the oil market; although historically there has been a strong, direct correlation between the oil price and the Canadian dollar, lately that correlation has no longer been working. The oil market still displays one of the last major bubbles that hasn't yet come to at least a temporary bust; when such an event finally materializes I think the path of least resistance in the USD/CAD proxy is going to be upward.
And then, there are the charts - which, beyond tight timeframes, I believe still appear to be constructive for those buying the US currency against the Canadian counterpart.
Published on Mon, May 5 2008, 21:35 GMT
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About the Canadian dollar
Wed, Apr 30 2008, 23:14 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
With the data now at hand, I perceive that the Canadian dollar has a very good chance to turn significantly weaker versus the US dollar. I see that process starting soon, and then unfolding impulsively over several months.
Early next week I'll briefly document the premises of such a perception.
Published on Wed, Apr 30 2008, 23:14 GMT
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Rational Exuberance (reloaded)
Sat, Apr 26 2008, 23:59 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
After having watched the financial markets from around the world over the last several months, I remember a few lines I wrote in late May last year.
Published on Sat, Apr 26 2008, 23:59 GMT
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Currency bets rebuilt (liquidated)
Mon, Apr 21 2008, 21:56 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Last Friday I was forced to abruptly liquidate my entire exposure consisting of sizable long EUR/USD, short USD/SGD and long EUR/GBP positions.
Although the market moves against me that day were not quite huge, percentage wise, the massive exposure I had been holding could have put me in a dangerous position had I not decided to dump everything at once. The consolidated loss taken on Friday practically shattered the remarkable profits resulted from a similar sequence of market bets closed out last month.
Within days I'll put in writing a few details about the latest rounds of currency speculations. With the data now at hand, however, it appears stepping back in, even in some of the markets that left me behind last Friday, becomes a matter of time rather than one of possibility.
Published on Mon, Apr 21 2008, 21:56 GMT
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Currency bets rebuilt (revisited)
Wed, Apr 16 2008, 13:13 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
In the early debut of the European transacting time yesterday, I increased my already fairly large market exposure betting the Euro would continue to appreciate against the British pound, and that the US Dollar would resume its depreciation versus both the Euro and the Singapore dollar.
Published on Wed, Apr 16 2008, 13:13 GMT
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Currency bets rebuilt
Mon, Apr 14 2008, 21:55 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Over mid last week I rebuilt a sizable market exposure betting the Euro would resume its appreciation against both the US dollar and the British pound.
Published on Mon, Apr 14 2008, 21:55 GMT
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Remaining aside (reloaded)
Sat, Apr 5 2008, 21:17 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I have remained aside in the wake of a fresh round of currency and other global speculations.
It goes without saying that I'm not going to build a presence in the markets again unless I get a far better grasp of things.
Published on Sat, Apr 5 2008, 21:17 GMT
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Remaining aside (reloaded)
Mon, Mar 31 2008, 14:19 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I have remained aside in the wake of a fresh round of currency and other global speculations.
It goes without saying that I'm not going to build a presence in the markets again unless I get a far better grasp of things.
Published on Mon, Mar 31 2008, 14:19 GMT
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Remaining aside
Sun, Mar 23 2008, 22:37 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I have remained aside in the wake of a fresh round of currency and other global speculations.
It goes without saying that I'm not going to build a presence in the markets again unless I get a far better grasp of things.
Published on Sun, Mar 23 2008, 22:37 GMT
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Massive bets, closed out
Tue, Mar 18 2008, 20:52 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Just minutes after the FOMC announcement today I liquidated at market my entire heavy exposure consisting of long silver and gold, long Euro against the US dollar, and long Euro against the British pound positions opened several weeks ago. In a few days I will be documenting the levels, dates and rationales.
While the bets involved have been some of the most remarkable in my trading history to date, I will have no hesitation to put the same ideas to the market test again - if certain circumstances do apply.
Published on Tue, Mar 18 2008, 20:52 GMT
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Massive bets ongoing (revisited)
Mon, Mar 17 2008, 22:44 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
For the time being, I continue to hold a fairly large exposure consisting of long silver and gold, long Euro against the US dollar, and long Euro against the British pound positions opened several weeks ago.
Nonetheless, I am closely watching all the markets involved in a rapid search for better clues.
Published on Mon, Mar 17 2008, 22:44 GMT
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Massive bets ongoing
Wed, Mar 12 2008, 23:06 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
Even in spite of some of the markets involved having exhibited increasing volatility lately (not meaning, however, that I have disrespected the risks) - I continue to have a fairly large exposure long silver and gold, long Euro against the US dollar, and long Euro against the British pound.
Published on Wed, Mar 12 2008, 23:06 GMT
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Fresh Round of Currency Speculations (reloaded, again)
Fri, Mar 7 2008, 22:36 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
All bets - introduced by my latest FXstreet.com notes - are still on.
However, I'm watching the markets involved even more closely - the precious metals markets, in particular - in the wake of terrific volatility seen this week.
Published on Fri, Mar 7 2008, 22:36 GMT
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Fresh Round of Global Speculations (reloaded)
Sun, Mar 2 2008, 22:20 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
With the single, although notable, exception of my short US 10-year T-Notes position, all the other global bets introduced by my latest FXstreet.com notes have presented me with not half bad, and in some cases remarkable, interim results. My bullish bet on spot silver, for instance, has so far seized an underlying market move of about 11% (unleveraged).
All bets are still on. With, again, the exception of my bearish US Treasuries bet, the size of my positions has been increased to a sizable extent over the latest days.
Published on Sun, Mar 2 2008, 22:20 GMT
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Fresh Round of Global Speculations (revisited)
Tue, Feb 26 2008, 10:37 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
In addition to my FXstreet.com notes of last Sunday, I'm also of the opinion that chances for the US dollar to suffer a sizable, accelerating depreciation - particularly via the EUR/USD and the US Dollar Index - are growing exponentially.
I have already placed a bet accordingly, planning to increase size of the position under specific circumstances.
As well, I keep intact my exposure in the precious metals markets (spot silver, in particular), the US Treasuries and the EUR/GBP - as disclosed in my latest FXstreet.com notes.
Published on Tue, Feb 26 2008, 10:37 GMT
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Fresh Round of Global Speculations
Sun, Feb 24 2008, 23:06 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
My FXstreet.com notes of February 15th and February 19th provided the background on which I'd engaged into a fresh round of global speculations.
More precisely, I already assumed brand new, long positions in the spot gold, spot silver and the EUR/GBP markets. As well, I set up a separate trading sub-account with a futures broker several days ago and took a large short position in the US 10-year T-Notes.
Published on Sun, Feb 24 2008, 23:06 GMT
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Long−term US yields set to move upward (revisited)
Tue, Feb 19 2008, 14:47 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I had made a reasonable amount of money over the latest months mainly from betting on three global, major scenarios: the US dollar to sell-off enroute to new all-time lows versus the Canadian dollar, the gold market to surge to record highs, and the British pound to breakdown massively versus the Euro.
With the data now at hand, I think at least two out of those three scenarios may not be history yet (I refer specifically to the EUR/GBP and the gold markets, which - in my opinion - may soon chart new all-time highs).
However, I recently embarked myself on a search for a new global theme from which I could yet again profit handsomely.
I started the search while acknowledging two bets made by legendary financial speculators: a market bet placed late last year by Julian Robertson, and an intellectual bet put in print in the Financial Times on January 22nd by George Soros.
I wrote here last Friday:
'I've recently started to contemplate the opportunity for a new global bet - one that would benefit handsomely from a surprising rise in the long-term US yields (i.e. a fall in the price of 30-year and 10-year Treasuries).
I believe the long-term US yields are already being set for moving upward. As shorter-term US yields like the 2-year continue to be moving lower, this evolution itself - in my opinion - becomes vulnerable to somewhat of a positive reversal. And even if such positive turn doesn't take place or does materialize yet in a shy manner, the spread between the long-term and the short-term US yields may further keep widening.
I could well document the directional guess plotted above mainly from a technical perspective, and implying a rather tight time horizon. I can hardly say I have a remarkably clear view of the bigger picture yet, though.'
For the time being I keep those opinions intact - including that even the multi-month price advance experienced by shorter-term US Treasuries (the 2-year T-Note, for example) becomes vulnerable to a negative correction.
Published on Tue, Feb 19 2008, 14:47 GMT
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Long−term US yields set to move upward
Fri, Feb 15 2008, 11:26 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I've recently started to contemplate the opportunity for a new global bet - one that would benefit handsomely from a surprising rise in the long-term US yields (i.e. a fall in the price of 30-year and 10-year Treasuries).
I believe the long-term US yields are already being set for moving upward. As shorter-term US yields like the 2-year continue to be moving lower, this evolution itself - in my opinion - becomes vulnerable to somewhat of a positive reversal. And even if such positive turn doesn't take place or does materialize yet in a shy manner, the spread between the long-term and the short-term US yields may further keep widening.
I could well document the directional guess plotted above mainly from a technical perspective, and implying a rather tight time horizon. I can hardly say I have a remarkably clear view of the bigger picture yet, though.
Published on Fri, Feb 15 2008, 11:26 GMT
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New Round of Currency Speculations (revisited)
Sat, Feb 9 2008, 00:39 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I got involved recently in a new round of currency speculations, as proxies for what I'd perceived to come in form of a recovery of the global stock markets, as well as a depreciation of the US dollar.
After the brutal sell-off I saw hitting the international stock markets on Monday, January 21st, it took me little time to realize the Federal Reserve would most likely cut the interest rates substantially as soon as the next day, and ahead of that week's first trading minute on Wall Street. That, in fact, was not a fancy prediction to spell out in the office, as the context of that Monday pretty much resembled what I saw last year on August 16th, before the US 'discount' rate was lowered just one day later in the wake of an emergency Federal Reserve meeting.
So to me it came as no surprise that on Tuesday, January 22nd, the US central bank did just what I thought - cutting the interest rates by 75 bps, an hour or so before the start of the regular Wall Street transacting time, in the most Pavlovian reaction possible to what at that moment was happening in the international stock markets. However, Wall Street's positive response was not immediate. I remember watching the computer screens and uttering, unless something or somebody pushes the US stocks upward, we may well see a revisitation of October 19th, 1987.
Something or somebody did push the Wall Street upward that Tuesday, though. But it wasn't earlier than Thursday, January 24th, that I'd put various things together, figuring out somewhat of a recovery would be embraced worldwide in the stock markets. Then, I thought, the Japanese yen an the Swiss franc would go down.
As I'd write in a research note forwarded to the brokerage house I work for, dated Thursday, January 24th, I found intriguing that the financial sector - precisely the one which pushed the US stock market on the verge of a collapse both last summer and last month - enjoyed a remarkably good day on Wednesday, January 23rd. For only the most relevant example, after heavily dropping on the preceding days, giant bond insurers like Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc. had their shares up about 71% and 32% that Wednesday.
Friday, January 25th, for me it was time to put my latest thoughts to the market test. I decided to buy a high yielding currency and sell a low yielding one, so I went long the NZD/CHF at 0.8459.
The following Tuesday, on January 29th, I saw merit in selling the US dollar via the USD/CAD, so I went short the pair at 1.0027 and 1.0010 - thinking that a second interest rate cut in 9 days by the Federal Reserve could make a daily chart congestion break down to below parity.
Minutes after the US central bank's interest rate announcement on January 30th, Wall Street skyrocketed, so it looked like my bets were about to once again pass the market test. The NZD/CHF soared to nearby 0.86, whereas the USD/CAD sank to below 0.99.
Yet, in what would later prove as only the first ambush of the week, the sentiment on Wall Street rapidly changed course just less than an hour ahead of the day close.
I then had to make a fast call, reconsider the developments with or without holding the initial positions. My vote came for 'without', hence few minutes before the closing bell I dumped my entire exposure at 0.8510 (NZD/CHF) and 0.9930 (USD/CAD) respectively.
Even so, the US dollar would stay on my radar in the afterwards.
On February 1st, hours before the release of January US nonfarm payrolls, I went long the EUR/USD at 1.4898 and again long spot gold at 934.00, setting firm stop-loss orders at 1.4736 and 915.69 respectively.
Just as the labor market numbers got publicly known, both bets went in the money. The EUR/USD reached into 1.49, whereas at nearby 937 the price of spot gold was quoted at a new all-time high.
Yet the sentiment on the US dollar's fronts turned upside down, 30 minutes or so both markets I was targeting began to fall precipitously.
I managed to dump the EUR/USD position during a shy price recovery that Friday, at 1.4855 - and that was a reasonable exit given the facts, I reckoned. But the gold market fell too much too fast, hence my position was automatically closed out within minutes.
Overall, last week turned out to have little impact on my equity. On some trading accounts, the consolidated result was close to breakeven. Though, on other accounts where my gold position happened to be larger and its stop-loss order wasn't honored orderly by one of my retail brokers, last week brought a net loss.
Playing fast almost always comes at a cost. To me, that cost rarely justifies stepping in for quick rewards.
On the other hand, last week also reminded me that one of the most important things in my business is losing insignificatly at those times when markets prove me awfully wrong. Seen from that very perspective, last week was no failure.
Published on Sat, Feb 9 2008, 00:39 GMT
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New Round of Currency Speculations
Mon, Feb 4 2008, 09:29 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
I got involved recently in a new round of currency speculations, as proxies for what I'd perceived to come in form of a recovery of the global stock markets, as well as a depreciation of the U.S. Dollar.
I will be back with few more details on the involved positions.
Published on Mon, Feb 4 2008, 09:29 GMT
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USD/CHF: '2B Bottom' in the Making? (revisited)
Sat, Jan 26 2008, 20:49 GMT
by Mihai Nichisoiu
On Monday, January 21st, I was noting:
'I wonder whether the US Dollar is plotting a bullish reversal of the '2B bottom' kind against the Swiss Franc.
If the chart pattern is being confirmed beyond tight timeframes, the US currency has the best chance in some time to regain the initiative.
I will be watching.'
However, no bullish reversal of the kind mentioned on Monday - or of any other kind, for that matter - has materialized eversince. Accordi