http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-02-09.html“It is always so pleasant to be generous, though very vexatious to pay debts.”      Ralph Waldo Emerson Each morning we wake to another round of Greek-Card Monti, a con game played on the streets of New York which almost always ends badly for those risking their money. Thing is, everyone that knows anything about the con understands the outcome before the game begins. Is the Greek situation any different? Well, the difference between the real game and the Greek inspiredThu, 09 Feb 2012 16:30:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-02-08.htmlQuotable “Most attempts to find out what nations really are have suffered from an intrinsic defect: they have been attempts to define the general concept of nationality. People have said that the nation is this or that, apparently believing that all that mattered was to find the right definition; once found, this would be applicable to all nations equally. They have adduced language or territory, written literature, history, form of government or so-called national feeling; and in every caseWed, 08 Feb 2012 14:52:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-02-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-27.htmlWhen I hear someone mention China in the midst of a political discussion aimed at understanding our future economic path, I shake my head. There are very real reasons to give China's economy lots of press. What they have accomplished over the last 30 years -- major reform and a relatively more open economy -- is worthy of recognition. Even the fact that they've been able to maintain a decently high pace of growth through one of the toughest economic times the world can remember deserves someFri, 27 Jan 2012 14:10:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-26.html“It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a ‘dismal science.’ But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.” -Murray Rothbard I keep trying to find the wisdom in the manipulation of money and credit, but I am having lots of trouble. From Ludwig von Mises, “Lower Interest Rates by Law,” Mises On the Manipulation ofThu, 26 Jan 2012 16:08:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-19.htmlQuotable “The government is unresponsive to the needs of the little man. Under 5'7", it is impossible to get your congressman on the phone.”  Woody Allen Commentary & Analysis Is recession dead ahead?  If so, it is Wiley Coyote time! I think we are nearing a major Wiley Coyote moment for Mr. Market.  Despite recent joy over some of the economic numbers, recession in the US is still very much in play; if so, S&P 500 Index and Crude Oil , seemingly joined at the “risk on”Thu, 19 Jan 2012 15:23:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-18.html“Let me smile with the wise, and feed with the rich.” -Samuel Johnson Michael Pettis is a professor at Beijing University, and one of the best global macro analysts out there, in my opinion. His recent piece, titled, “If no trade reversal now, then when,” should be required reading for anyone who wants a clear summary of Eurozone problems without becoming mired in all the stuff of breaking news. Bullet point summary of his recent piece: Capital Inflow Imbalances: “Trade imbalances, of course,Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:50:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-13.htmlQuotable The Morning Star paled slowly, the Cross hung low to the sea And down the shadowy reaches the tide came swirling free. The lustrous purple blackness of the soft Australian night Waned in the grey awakening that heralded the light; Still in the dying darkness, still in the forest dim The pearly dew of the dawning clung to each giant limb, Till the sun came up from ocean, red with the cold sea mist, And smote on the limestone ridges, and the shining tree-tops kissed; Then the fieryFri, 13 Jan 2012 14:36:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-11.htmlNo doubt the developed world markets are struggling, but don’t worry about the emerging markets (EMs) – it’s all good there and in fact EMs will be the buffer for the other problems facing the world economy. At least that seems the consensus argument.  But this year we expect it to be different for EMs.  It was nice to find yesterday a smart guy who shares our view and adds a lot more.   First, a look at the EM Index compared to the S&P 500 Index: But how can it be that Mr.Wed, 11 Jan 2012 15:07:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-09.htmlRemember the Moon Remember the moon my friend Our line of sight Joining our separate nights Remember the moon my friend When days seem dark Yet sun burns the sky blue Remember the moon my friend When rains come, mangoes ripen And even cattle refuse the bounty When frogs croak And pigs wallow And birds nest again The sight of the moon Is as eyes meeting Faster than light Our gaze drawing us near The sight of the full moon Pulls us as it pulls oceans A silver thread Strong as spider's web TheMon, 09 Jan 2012 14:48:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-05.htmlGerman in Vegas Hans, a middle-aged German tourist on his first visit to Las Vegas, finds the red light district and enters a large brothel. The madam asks him to be seated and sends over a young lady to entertain him. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she gasps and runs away! Seeing this, the madam sends over a more experienced lady to entertain the gentleman. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit,Thu, 05 Jan 2012 15:48:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-04.htmlWe received some new commentary from one of our go-to sources for global economic and political analysis. And then I read through the latest letter from Bill Gross. And after comparing it to recent comments from Kyle Bass, I’m beginning to notice a theme.   But first, the expected QE3 from the Federal Reserve has so far been a question of when, not if. And the consensus seems to feel said easing will have the same impact on financial markets (rising prices) and the real economy (noWed, 04 Jan 2012 15:58:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2012-01-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-23.htmlWhen China is calling you out for proposing an inhibitive social meme from the high throne, then you’ve got problems. Sure, China certainly isn’t the most environmentally conscious economy in the world, but they’re seeing through the smog on this one: China opposes the European Union's "mandatory and unilateral" carbon emission tax on airlines which Chinese experts called "a green barrier". Europe's highest court upheld on Wednesday the right of the EU to impose a carbon cap-and-trade scheme onFri, 23 Dec 2011 15:06:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-20.htmlAbout fifteen years ago I remember when the guru-in-chief for Morgan Stanley was Barton Biggs. He is a very bright man and has had many investment successes, so don’t get me wrong when I share this. But I think it is the epitome of just how long markets can remain either “overbought” or “oversold” because of a major shift in the global macro backdrop for a particular asset class. Back in 1995, near the height of Mr. Biggs popularity as the go-to global macro analyst, he said Japanese governmentTue, 20 Dec 2011 14:53:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-14.htmlAsian Screech—Dollar Zoom? I find it interesting how complacent many still are regarding Asia, China in particular. But I guess if one vests so much time and effort to wave a convincing story, it is difficult to be objective (guilty as charged). But the slowdown in Asia is palpable, and soon it could turn into an all-out run thanks to falling dollar liquidity, thanks to the Eurozone banking crisis, and thanks to the Chinese housing bubble ... Emerging Market Index Weekly: Two key points, firstWed, 14 Dec 2011 14:15:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-12.htmlCommentary & Analysis Oh my gold! If you caught our Currency Currents issues last week, one might deduce that we’ve described the optimum environment for investing in gold. We hit on technocrats, out-of-control spending, unprincipled politicians, entitlement, monetary malaise, fiscal disorder, etc. If we were you, we’d probably deduce the same thing: time to bet on gold. But there seems to be a small problem as the markets get revved up this week ... Gold is falling. It is down almost 2%Mon, 12 Dec 2011 13:54:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-09.htmlGive technocrats an excel spreadsheet, make a circle, hold hands, sing kumbaya, and all is right in the world. Well, at least in the world that matters to politicians—the real world where people work and live is a different story. As much as we all want the Eurozone to succeed (or not, as in my case); it seems they continue to believe financial engineering is the key to success. I think it is a huge mistake. It appears we already have a perfect micro example of the austerity plan handy work inFri, 09 Dec 2011 13:47:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-07.htmlI’d use the word “funny,” but it’s not the correct choice. Neither “odd” nor “strange” cuts the mustard as a proper descriptive. I think I will settle on “Orwellian” to describe the market’s continued belief in the power of the central banker. Tomorrow, when the European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its interest rate announcement, we could witness yet another “Orwellian” moment in the minds of money managers. I share our hourly wave chart of EUR/USD as example: So what might be the driver forWed, 07 Dec 2011 16:45:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-05.htmlTwo examples why fundamentals don’t always matter! People will argue that eventually fundamentals always matter. It can also be argued that price dictates fundamentals over certain time frames. In other words, relying on fundamentals alone can get you in trouble. All too often it seems like fundamentals don’t deliver trading profits, no matter how obvious the future seems. Case #1: The euro. Why has the euro not completely collapsed already? You might say because of the US Federal Reserve’sMon, 05 Dec 2011 16:28:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-02.htmlBack in 2007 some no-name GOP political candidate with two first names emphasized the need to restructure our monetary system. But he had a hunch government would not even consider tackling the problem until a major crisis descended upon the US financial system. About a year later, that crisis arrived. And while it centered on the US, it became a global financial crisis. It began with a bursting and subsequent deflation of the US real estate bubble; it continued with the insolvency of majorFri, 02 Dec 2011 16:44:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-12-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-30.htmlWSJ - The Fed, ECB and other central banks took coordinated action to shore up the global financial system as Europe's rolling debt crisis continues to trouble markets. Risk assets love this news this morning. The euro is jumping and stocks are rocking and rolling…good for financial market players, but we’ve seen this before--credit thrown on top of credit to solve a problem that was caused by too much credit in the first place. It seems a dangerous game that lacks any form or imagination. ButWed, 30 Nov 2011 15:42:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-25.htmlCommentary & Analysis Mind the Ghost of Currency Currents Past. Below is an issue of Currency Currents written a year ago, on 29 November 2010. To say the least, it was pretty much on the money in describing how the events would play out in Europe. Only one last shoe to drop however; it’s time for European countries to get their old currencies back. We’re looking forward to trading the Dutch guilder, French franc, Portuguese escudo, etc. once again -- just like the old days! 29 NovemberFri, 25 Nov 2011 14:22:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-24.htmlCommentary & Analysis Going around the horn of plenty ... circa 2009. I was looking through a Summer 2009 edition of The International Economy magazine (I found it while I was reorganizing my office.) The cover reads: An American “Lost Decade” of Stagnant Growth? The cover story was basically a one-question poll of some of the world’s most popular, and dare I say respected, economic and financial minds. With the exception of a few details, the questions and answers still apply today. TheThu, 24 Nov 2011 14:13:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-23.htmlCommentary & Analysis What comes after B? Self-reinforcing downside of G-3 feedback loop being driven by the Double- Ds of Deflation – deleveraging and falling demand: Major Thematic Falling Global Demand and Deleveraging BEIJING, Nov 23 (Reuters) - China's factory sector shrank the most in 32 months in November on signs of domestic economic weakness, a preliminary PMI survey showed, reviving worries that China may be slipping towards a hard landing and fuelling fears of a globalWed, 23 Nov 2011 12:07:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-22.htmlQuotable “Quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit, occidentis telum est.” [Latin: A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand.]” Seneca the Elder On Thursday of last week I showed you this daily chart of the S&P 500: And I said: 1) It remains above its 50-day moving average. 2) The recent consolidation has helped it move off of overbought levels. 3) The triangle pattern suggests prices will exit in the same direction that they entered – in this case, up. Fibonacci projectionTue, 22 Nov 2011 14:57:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-11.htmlYou have to love the irony here: Reuters: Italy to vote on cuts, US applies pressure: Italy's Senate is set to vote on austerity measures demanded by the European Union to avert a euro zone meltdown, after U.S. President Barack Obama ratcheted up pressure for more dramatic action from the currency bloc. Talk about chutzpah! President Obama now has added Europe to his blame list, which is already quite vast indeed. Let me see if I can put this another way: Spend like a drunken sailor at home inFri, 11 Nov 2011 16:03:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-02.htmlBoy oh boy can copper move fast. It can also change directions rather sharply. And that doesn’t usually make for a settling combination. So what gives? In commenting on the recent increase in Chinese imports of refined copper, one Reuters’ commentator suggested it was the lower price that led to the increase: The price rout continued into October with most of the base metals hitting 2011 lows. That will only have whetted further China's appetite and September's jump in imports may be a sign ofWed, 02 Nov 2011 15:00:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-10-17.htmlCommentary & Analysis Everybody loves the Street! It used to be we only had bulls, bears, bucket shops, manipulators (aka specialists), syndicates (aka manipulators), sheep, wolves, tipsters, and an assorted array of those fond of larceny occupying Wall Street; in short, the embodiment of what Goldman Sachs built its reputation upon. Now, we have to add nut jobs, socialists, Marxist, Communists (yes you Van Jones; ex-Green Jobs Advisor of the Obama administration: I’m talking about you),Mon, 17 Oct 2011 13:47:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-10-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-27.htmlTuesday 27 September 2011 Quotable There’s always hope for anything, but with the same old guys running it I don’t see much hope for ---- they talk a good game every once in a while but they still seem to be playing with the same old rules. Jim Rogers, when asked about having hope for Russia’s economy now that Putin has announced he will run for President Commentary & Analysis A buyer of gold ... for the next two days! I’m not sure if Jack got much (or any) hate-mail from the gold bugsTue, 27 Sep 2011 14:55:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-15.htmlCommentary & Analysis But why, master? The growth emanating from the global economy seems analogous to the sound of one hand clapping. For the mystics among us, they can still hear the growth engines humming. Many of us hear the sound of screeching; the noise one hears just before a train wreck. Others are likely asking: Who coined such gibberish as the sound of one-hand clapping anyway? The sound of one hand clapping is a phrase from the lore of Zen Buddhism. It is a koan, as I understandThu, 15 Sep 2011 14:24:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-07.htmlThere is little doubt the doom and gloom crowd has the upper hand when it comes to sentiment about the U.S. economy and its future in the world. I know many want their doom and gloom beliefs validated, and therefore it’s burning-at-the-stake time for one to be the least bit optimistic about the future of the U.S. at a time like this. But let me give it a try and see if makes any sense to you. I am not going to deny there is a host, a virtual plethora, of reasons why it looks ugly for the U.S.Wed, 07 Sep 2011 16:26:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-01.htmlCommentary & Analysis Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs! Sorry, did that sound like a cat food commercial? Naturally, ahead of tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report and President Obama’s upcoming jobs address to Congress, talk of creating jobs in the US has become top priority. And thank goodness – I’ve been wondering why it’s taken so long to fire up the (clean-coal burning) jobs machine. Luckily I found an article this morningThu, 01 Sep 2011 14:11:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-09-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-22.htmlQuotable “A man that hoards up riches and enjoys them not, is like an ass that carries gold and eats thistles.” Richard Burton Commentary & Analysis Gold. Dumb Money. Bubble? I think the title is clear. I ask because we’re starting to get wind of bubble-talk from the financial press et al. It is very similar to the talk we heard on silver earlier in the year when its price increases began looking parabolic. While gold seems to have gotten ahead of itself, I tend to lean towards the ideaMon, 22 Aug 2011 14:06:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-12.htmlCommentary & Analysis Attractive valuations: does that mean Keynes-ja vu all over again? Hey – you can’t argue against the fact that stocks and commodities are more attractive buys right now than they were two weeks ago, based entirely on relative value. Would I rather buy copper at $3.90 per pound instead of $4.50 a pound? Yes. Would I rather buy Bank of America at a 30% discount to where it was trading 10 days ago? Yes. But the more pertinent question might be: right now do I want to buyFri, 12 Aug 2011 14:14:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-11.htmlCommentary & Analysis Once again: It is a deflation problem! I have continued to watch with amazement that number of people who believe we have an inflation problem. I think it was either Mark Faber or Nassim Taleb, two people who do a lot of talking and throw a lot of stuff on the wall just in case something sticks, told us there was a “100 percent” guaranteeing inflation would spiral out of control, based on the money the Fed was “creating.” Taleb loaded up on long-term bond puts basedThu, 11 Aug 2011 15:46:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-10.htmlCommentary & Analysis The Fed: their toolbox is bigger than yours. Perhaps the only words from the FOMC announcement yesterday which would not have led to a relief rally would have been: We’re hiking rates by 50 basis points. Sorry. Your esteemed leaders, The FOMC P.S. The US economy is toast. I say this for two reasons: first, I think the markets were due for a breather; second, I think expectations were set in line with what was eventually delivered; third, I think the Fed carefully andWed, 10 Aug 2011 14:12:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-08.htmlMonday, August 1st - Can Australia Overcome Adversity? The Australian dollar has done very well lately and over the last couple years. Why? Well, because it's been a go-to currency to capture yield ... in a global environment of extremely low yields. The Australian economy has performed well based on its focus and available resources. Its central bank has done well to maintain a modicum of credibility. Its government has thus far escaped a global crisis and recession period with someMon, 08 Aug 2011 08:31:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-05.htmlCommentary & Analysis Countdown to FOMC: T minus 6 Days ... Yesterday was a day that sent up warning flags. Sure, we’ve been talking to this idea for some time, indeed in these pages over the last couple of months. Jack has provided the roadmap here through his macroeconomic analysis showing the key linkages in the global economy and how it’s leading us down the path of an accelerated deleveraging and deflationary environment. He shared a snapshot of the view in this Currency Currents backFri, 05 Aug 2011 13:47:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-04.v02.htmlQuotable “America is like a healthy body and its resistance is threefold: its patriotism, its morality and its spiritual life. If we can undermine these three areas, America will collapse from within.”  Josef Stalin Commentary & Analysis Maybe it’s my nationalistic tendencies, my likely narrow understanding of world history, or my bias towards free-market capitalism, but I am turned off by Russia. Of course, the social and humanitarian legacies of Lenin and Stalin might play a role inThu, 04 Aug 2011 15:46:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-04.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-04.htmlCommentary & Analysis Charts of the Day: More QE3…please? I read in a Bloomberg story today that Bill Gross was expecting QE3 in some form or fashion thanks to the US economy entering what he referred to as “stall speed.” “There’s a potential for a QE3,” said Gross, who oversees $1.28 trillion as Pimco’s co-chief investment officer. “I suggest, however, that that takes the form really of language, of extended period language, and maybe some type of cap on five- or even 10-year TreasuryThu, 04 Aug 2011 07:02:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-01.v02.htmlQuotable “In both the US and European cases, the process of allowing things to go right to the brink of a very disruptive event before an agreement is reached on the way forward has been a source of great uncertainty and anxiety around the world. “That anxiety has extended to Australia, even though, as I am sure people are sick of hearing me say, Australia is in the midst of a once-in-a-century event in our terms of trade. I won't recite the facts yet again. Suffice to say that this is, atMon, 01 Aug 2011 19:50:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/currency-currents/2011-08-01.v02.html