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Currency Currents

Fri, Oct 10 2008, 13:47 GMT

Black Swan Capital


Quotable
“A coward dies a thousand deaths, a hero only one.”

    William Shakespeare

FX Trading – Will our hero engender a bounce?

I guess that little coordinated interest rate cut thing didn’t do the trick. 

But don’t despair citizens.  Right now he’s strapping on his cape to prepare for yet another episode of “The US Treasury Saves the World” news conference to explain why the latest scheme hatched in the last 15-minutes will be just the ticket. 

Our guess today is we see Mr. Paulson on Tout TV pledging all that taxpayer money that was going to take weeks to get to institutions--the ones dropping dead by the day—will now be delivered immediately, by carrier, in large boxes, very late at night lest your average money grubbing citizen (taxpayer) not be confused they rank up with the institutional ilk. 

Execs at AIG are really excited by this idea.  In fact, all future trips to spas and resorts on the taxpayer dime will be in the dead of night.  A burden for sure given their usual MO, but one has to be flexible during these times.

Where from here? 

Our throwing bones didn’t work yesterday, not sure we want to toss them on the desk today.  We had a new intermediate-term low in the British pound against good old greenie last night…

British pound Futures Daily:
 chart

Interesting the open interest, bottom of chart, has not risen in-line with this beline lower.  Does it mean we need to see more for all to capitulate the trend, or does it mean many waiting on the sidelines to buy into a correction…or….

And thought we got a decisive new low in the pound, we didn’t see it in the euro last night…which is a bit surprising given the vicious hammering of stocks around the world…

Euro futures Daily:
 chart


Is an oversold bounce due?  You bet.  But if our hero Hank disappoints, that lowly greenback just keeps on chugging.

TGIF!  Take care.


Regards,

Black Swan Capital


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Black Swan Capital LLC  | 2161 SW Racquet Club Drive Palm City, Florida 34990
http://www.blackswantrading.com | jcrooks@blackswantrading.com

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