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Commodity Observatory

Tue, Nov 3 2009, 08:48 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team

BBVA Bancomer

Commodity prices rebounded on Thursday following news that the US GDP grew 3.5% in the third quarter after four quarters of negative growth. For most commodities, however, the rebound was not large enough to offset the losses observed in the beginning of the week when the appreciation of the dollar helped to drive prices down.

Energy

The price of oil rose around 3% on Tuesday when data on US GDP growth were released, however it remained below the levels observed the week before when the dollar had reached its minimum value in a year. Saudi Arabia decided to abandon the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), as a benchmark for pricing its contracts. A new index to replace the WTI as the reference for Saudi Arabia contracts will be created and will be used from January onwards. The decision reflects the Saudi Arabia discontentment with the fact that WTI prices had decoupled from other oil market references.

Agriculture

Heavy rains in the US Midwest added to concerns about the next harvest of grains in US. The bad weather which has been observed recently in US poses a downward risk to USDA forecasts, which currently point to historically high soybeans, corn and wheat crops. Rice prices skyrocketed as the losses in the current production of Philippines (the world’s main importer) could be even higher than the 25% previously estimated as a typhoon nears the country.

Metals

Copper prices moved slightly amidst news that the US economy is leaving the recession and output disruptions in Chile and Australia. Copper and tin LME stocks continue to grow, according to the most recent data. Aluminium shipments into Japan rose 13.1% m-o-m (- 18.1% y-o-y) in September.

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Published on  Tue, Nov 3 2009, 08:50 GMT