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Commodity Observatory
Wed, Jun 18 2008, 08:54 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team
We have revised our oil forecasts upwards to US$ 104 and US$ 81 by the end of 2008 and 2009 respectively. This revision is consistent with our expectation of a slowler appreciation of the USD and a weaker supply response. The very high plateau that prices have reached in the last few weeks should also extend the time need to reach equilibrium prices. Corn soared due to bad weather in US.
Agriculture
Bad weather conditions in US (for corn and soybean) and in Australia (for wheat) are driving prices up. Corn was being traded over 700 US cents per bushel, a new historical high, as wet weather in US has harmed the planting progress Sugar rose due to concerns that demand will generate a higher deviation of Brazilian sugarcane to biofuels.
Energy
While dollar appreciation helped to drive prices down, they resisted to decline more due to concerns with supply. International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Information Agency (EIA) have both decreased their supply forecasts. Although they have also revised their demand forecasts downwards, there is an increasing concern that supply (mainly non-OPEC) could not react to high prices. Geopolitical problems in Nigeria and Iran remain.
Base metals
Generalized drop in base metals prices this week. News regarding the fundamentals (recent Chinese data shows that copper demand is decreasing and aluminium exports increasing) joined dollar appreciation to drive prices down.
Precious metals
Gold and silver prices rose significantly as dollar appreciated against main other currencies.
Published on Wed, Jun 18 2008, 09:06 GMT
Archive
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