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Central European Economic Outlook
Wed, Mar 25 2009, 10:29 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk
• Czech Republic
The Czech economy is in recession, a situation caused primarily by falling demand in Western Europe. The recession has been accompanied by very low inflation, which has created scope for interest rates to remain at low levels or even to be cut further.
• Hungary
If the global growth cycle bottoms out in the next 3-6 months, Hungary may also slowly recover later this year. So far, however, falling domestic consumption and investments should have a significant effect on import in the coming months, so the overall foreign trade balance is still expected to improve throughout the year.
• Poland
Although H1 2009 is still an official target for the Zloty’s entry into the ERM2 and is technically feasible, we have the impression that the government will opt out of ERM entry this year most likely quoting ‘un-favourable’ market conditions" as the reason.
• Slovakia
The Slovak economy grew by 6.4% in 2008 vs. 10.4% a year ago. Taking into account the latest downward revisions in the eurozone, we revised down our 2009 GDP forecast to -1.0%. The contribution of net exports will be negative on the back of lower foreign demand. The expected rise in unemployment rate together with the worsening consumer confidence will also affect the household consumption.
Published on Wed, Mar 25 2009, 10:36 GMT
Archive
- Central European Economic Outlook
Published On Fri, Oct 23 2009, 08:59 GMT - Central European Economic Outlook
Published On Thu, Aug 6 2009, 09:36 GMT - Central European Economic Outlook
Published On Wed, Jun 10 2009, 11:03 GMT - Central European Economic Outlook
Published On Wed, Mar 25 2009, 10:29 GMT - Central European Economic Outlook
Published On Wed, Jan 21 2009, 09:26 GMT
KBC Bank
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