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Central European Economic Outlook

Fri, Oct 23 2009, 08:59 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank


Czech Republic

The fall in industrial output is starting to decelerate due to the one-off impact of the bonus for scrapping cars put in place in Germany. Given low domestic demand, the wave of price reductions is likely to persist and be yet another contributor to the favourable inflation outlook for next year. Hence, the central bank has several more arguments at hand for cutting its base rate.

Hungary

The country has become an exporter of capital as the C/A balance swung into surplus and foreign trade is going to post a huge surplus this (probably more than €2B). No wonder that the S&P rating agency upgraded the outlook for Hungary’s sovereign ratings.

Poland

The Polish economy will remain the economy within the EU, which will not slip into recession this global cycle. That is why we think that markets’ worries about the fiscal outlook are overblown.

Slovakia

The German scrap subsidy helped Slovak manufacturing to moderate its free fall and registered only a mild -4.2% Y/Y decrease in August. Harmonized inflation dipped to a new all time low at 0%. More and more institutions paint a rosier picture of the Slovak economy - EBRD expects +3.5% Y/Y growth in 2010.

Published on  Fri, Oct 23 2009, 08:59 GMT

KBC Bank  | Havenlaan 12, 1080 Brussels
http://www.kbc.be/dealingroom | piet.lammens@kbc.be

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

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