The Greek vote calms the region
The Hungarian government reached a deal with the IMF
CEE markets were strengthening ahead of Greek vote on hopes of central banks coordinated action. The zloty was leading gains on Friday (+0.8%), with the Czech koruna lagging behind (+0.16%).
During the weekend in Greece, the pro-European ND became the biggest party in Parliament. The chances for a pro-European government are bigger now than they were at the end of last week. We expect risk-on sentiment as the outcome of the Greek elections prevented a further step toward an European Armagedon. We believe that especially the zloty and forint could profit from the ongoing relief.
Meanwhile in Hungary, the market can also appreciate a deal of government with the IMF and ECB. The government reached a compromise with the Fund on amendments to central bank law that could according to IMF jeopardise the central banks independence. That is probably the last obstacle that has so far blocked the start of the talks about financial package from IMF. Given moderate budget deficit and current account surplus, the forint may look attractive, if the global markets feel any short term relief from Greece.
|FRA 3x6||%||bps chng|
|Czech Rep. 10Y||3.19||2|
|CDS 5Y||%||bps chng|