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Central European Daily
Forint is pleased with another huge foreign trade surplus
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 08:32 GMT
by KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank | View company's profile
Headlines
Currencies: Forint is pleased with another huge foreign trade surplus
Czech Republic
The Czech koruna gave away part of its recent gains yesterday. The negative sentiment could be explained by higher risk aversion, which caused some losses in other regional markets.
Today, the koruna has started the session with a quick check of the June CPI and unemployment figures. Both figures were actually a bit lower than the market had expected. While the year-on-year CPI dropped to 1.2% Y/Y, the unemployment rate rose to 8.0%. Both figures do not alter our view that the CNB will cut the repo at its August interest-rate-setting meeting. Concerning the koruna, its reaction to the released figures should be calm, so we expect the EUR/CZK will develop a sideways trading pattern around the 26.0 figure.
| Currencies | Close | change |
| EUR/CZK | 25.98 | -0.20% |
| EUR/HUF | 276.9 | -0.40% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.391 | -0.50% |
| USD/PLN | 3.16 | -0.70% |
| EUR/USD | 1.394 | 0.20% |
| USD/JPY | 93.3 | -1.00% |
Poland
Yesterday, the Polish zloty stayed on a weaker footing and failed to get back below 4.40 EUR/PLN for most of the session. The zloty didn’t care about the comments made by the finance ministry saying that the pair seems to be stabilising and that there is no need for use of EU funds for market interventions. Solid demand in the ten year auction did not bring benefits for the zloty either.
For the rest of the week the calendar of domestic events is empty. We believe that the zloty could calm down a bit as the US earnings season took a positive start so far. Hence the pair may move in a tight range below 4.40 EUR/PLN:
| Bonds 2Y | Close | change |
| Czech Rep | 2.85 | -0.01 |
| Hungary 3Y | 9.58 | 0.02 |
| Poland | 5.35 | -0.08 |
| Slovakia | 2.61 | 0.01 |
| Eurozone | 1.19 | -0.02 |
| USA | 0.94 | -0.01 |
| Bonds 10Y | Close | change |
| Czech Rep | 5.81 | -0.03 |
| Hungary | 9.51 | 0 |
| Poland | 6.23 | -0.08 |
| Slovakia | 5.16 | 0 |
| Eurozone | 3.27 | -0.01 |
| USA | 3.34 | -0.1 |
Hungary
The Hungarian forint tested the 280.00 level overnight, but good foreign trade data from May helped it to recover to above 277.00 this morning. Yesterday’s trading was generally quiet and the market seems to have been following the worldwide sentiment. The country has accumulated €1.5bn trade surplus so far this year and this should help in lowering the large external debt.
Published on Thu, Jul 9 2009, 08:50 GMT
Archive
- EUR/HUF just above the 260 level
Published On Thu, Mar 18 2010, 09:48 GMT - EUR/PLN ready to test 3.85 resistance level
Published On Wed, Mar 17 2010, 09:38 GMT - Very poor Czech retail sales point to weak domestic demand
Published On Tue, Mar 16 2010, 10:03 GMT - Zloty shrugs off poor C/A figures and erases short-lived losses
Published On Mon, Mar 15 2010, 09:48 GMT - Czech GDP revised sharply upwards
Published On Fri, Mar 12 2010, 09:45 GMT
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.Related reports
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