So what happened really? Not much - stocks continued to slide Thursday on weak economic data - Philly FED reports a -12.5 read....vs. the exp of +1.1 (disaster) and ongoing concern about what the FED mins really meant....Will they take the candy bowl away or not?
Can you really be surprised at the reaction? ....we have now erased the entire month's gain - but the RED flags have been there....you can't say that this came out of the blue at all......I mean look we have massive corp insider selling, the VIX at an all time low for a long stretch, Oil prices teasing $100/barrel, Gas up 17% ytd, Food prices not far behind, massive gridlock in DC holding us hostage, talk of the individual investor missing the boat, continued recessionary conditions across Europe, Japan in lock down mode, and then the FED acknowledges that maybe this strategy is not working......in fact....
Who knows Dick Fisher??? He is the Dallas Fed President - one of the dissenters and he added fuel to the fire by saying:
“the Fed may actually be negatively impacting the economy: there is a significant risk that the policies recently undertaken by the FOMC are likely to prove ineffective and might well work against job creation.”...HELLO???? and then he pushes it over the edge when he said: “The Fed has artificially sustained markets”.
DING, DING, DING, DING.......Did he just say what so many other - well educated, informed, economists/strategists (your truly) have been screaming for 2 yrs? Did someone get him a Q-Tip? Did he just hear the people sing? Drum roll please"
"Do you hear the people sing?, singing the song of angry men? It is the music of the people that who will not be slaves again! When the beating of your heart echoes the beating of the drums, There is a life about to start when tomorrow comes..." - Les Miserable: Do you hear the people sing
I am sure that we all appreciate his candor - but what world has HE BEEN LIVING IN? We have watched as the mkts have gone higher - while the economy has gone nowhere, throw in Europe and Asia and there has been this massive disconnect.....so the question remains - not IF the Fed will stop the lunacy - but WHEN....not anytime soon my friends....with sequestration knocking on the door, and elected officials unable to sit at the same table - it is difficult to imagine that he will pull the plug.......OR will he?
Could this be the ploy to get those clowns to do what is right? Could the Fed be threatening to pull the plug just to apply a little more pressure to DC? I mean Benny is a Democrat.....so if the Republicans don't compromise and the Fed pulls out - the mkt will come under even MORE pressure, money will be lost, jobs will be lost, the economy will go into a tailspin, housing will collapse (again) and the world will turn......and guess who will take the blame? The GOP!.....BUT - if they all play nice in the sandbox and "kick the can down the road" then Uncle Benny will also play nice and leave the punch bowl where it is - causing the mkt to resume its march forward - US Futures are currently +8 pts trading at 1509....
This would make for a great miniseries - no? Just think of the actors we could get to play the starring roles.......
Overnight in Asia - the mood remains cautious, mkts churn but end off the lows.....the weak economics out of Europe and the worries over the FED are subsiding.....so here we go....Japan trading at its highest level in some 2 yrs....South Korea making news and the Australians are throwing a party....China on the other hand is recovering from the Lunar new year celebrations and ended the week lower. Japan +0.6%, Hong Kong-0.5%, China - 0.5% and ASX +0.7%
In Europe - the region awaits the Italian elections....Germany reported a better than expected IFO index reading of 107.4 vs. the exp of 105 - this represents the strongest monthly increase since July 2010.....In Italy - the mkts are skittish - up then down then up again...all eyes on the Lombardy Region in Italy - this is their OHIO. Capisce? FTSE + %0.8, CAC 40 ++1.8%, DAX +1%, EUROSTOXX +1.6%, SPAIN +1.4% and ITALY +1.6%
US Futures are + 8.....trying to go out on rally mode this weekend ahead of the Oscars......the media will credit the Germans for this optimism....I on the other hand will just say - it is a dead cat bounce off of 1500 - watch for pressure at 1510 ish...a test of 1490 support is not out of the question at all....If we break that - then the next leg would take us to the 1460 range.