With the US Thanksgiving holiday behind us, market conditions are expected to return to normal – and so is the economic calendar. Given the return to normalcy, here are 6 major releases that will ensure plenty of opportunity for market players.
Eurogroup Meetings (November 26th)
The third time’s the charm. This meeting will be the third meeting of Eurogroup leaders and will likely be the one where Greece receives its much needed $40 billion in bailout aid. Although issues still surround the two year Greek debt reduction extension, a potential bond buyback and debt restructuring European leaders can’t afford to delay on the decision much longer. Further postponement by policymakers could endanger the group’s reputation and boost speculation that the process will be drawn out rather than resolved.
The scenario could reinforce resistance at 1.3000currently. A failure to overtake thislevel would bolster the notion of a retest of 1.2800 psychological support.
UK Revised GDP (November 27th)
UK revised figures are anticipated to show a continuation of the 1% surge seen in the preliminary screening for the third quarter. Any decline in the revision is likely to place unwanted downward pressure on pound sterling, as it worsens the economic picture for the UK economy. This in turn would make the monetary policy situation complicated, especially with central bankers already shifting their focus towards inflation and not growth.
A decline in the quarterly GDP figure would bolster the1.6100 psychological figure, making it difficult for GBPUSD bulls to maintain current momentum. The failure to break higher would place 1.5800 into focus.
US Durable Goods Orders (November 27th)
US durable goods orders are anticipated to slide a bit, especially when taking into consideration that orders ratched higher by 9.8%. A more mild 0.6% slide is expected this time around, which would be a return to normal conditions – given recently volatile report findings. Even with the decline, the report is on a positive pace, gaining for 5 out of the last 7reports.
US New Home Sales (November 28th)
Housing sector data will once again take center stage, bolstering some bullish speculation for the US dollar in the short term. Expectations are running high for a continuation of optimism following this past week’s housing data reports –which saw some of the most promising housing starts and homes sales figures in the past year. Estimates are for a stabilizing 387,000 addition in the month.
US GDP (November 29th)
The second of three versions of the GDP figure, the preliminary release is expected to show an improvement in US third quarter GDP. This time around, estimates are for a 2.8% annualized pace of growth for the world’s largest economy – which would boost already growing speculation that the US economy is on the road to recovery. However, Fed officials are still likely to pursue current easing plans as the labor market continues to underperform.
A higher quarterly figure would boost focus on US dollar strength, particularly against the Japanese yen. The notion would firmly place a test of 83.00 into focus, with a break higher above, prompting a likely test of 84.
Chinese Manufacturing (November 30th)
A follow up to the most recent HSBC/Markit manufacturing activity survey, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) is expected to show a second monthly expansion in manufacturing sector activity. Estimates are for the index to rise to a reading of 50.8 in November. A positive sign like this would further confirm sentiment that the PBOC is unlikely to vote for any further monetary easing, as the country looks to be back in bullish form.