1. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (November 19th)
Not expected to be a game changer when it comes to the USDJPY, traders will be focused on any shift in policy direction from the country’s central bank. This is particularly true given the recent dissolution of the lower house of the Diet,or the country’s parliament. With early opinion polls already predicting a shift in power, it will be interesting if the Bank of Japan crumbles under already building political pressure to do more in regards to a Japanese economic recovery.
Ultimately, additional monetary easing is likely to undercut any yen retracement, supporting a likely move to 82.50 in the short term.
2. Eurogroup Meeting (November 20th)
A followup to the November 12th meeting, the November 20th summit is likely to yield nothing more than the disbursement of the highly anticipated $40.1 billion in Greek aid. European leaders will have had ample time in reviewing a fuller assessment of the Troika’s evaluations, this time around. However, the urgency of the payment has dulled a bit as the country has already sought enough capital to remain in operation well past the end of the month. However, a denial of disbursement could roil markets once again, and shift focus back to the European Union - away from the US.
The economic event is likely to do little if anything for the EURUSD as the pair rides support at 1.2675.
3. Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes (November 21st)
Highly anticipated, the minutes from the most recent MPC interest rate meeting will be released in midweek action. This time around, there is looming speculation that divisions among the central bankers may have widened, although not by much. Policymakers were pretty unanimous in their decision to hold off on additional asset purchases, per statements made by BOE Governor Mervyn King earlier this week. Ultimately, traders will be scrutinizing statements from the more dovish members in gauging the likelihood of future monetary easing measures.
GBPUSD looks to be supported heading into the report, that is expected to show a unanimous decision in keeping rates low. Technical barriers at 1.5800 are expected to bolster any type of upside correction in the pair towards psychological resistance at 1.6000.
4. US Unemployment Claims (November 21st)
Rising this past week, US unemployment claims are said to have surged on aftereffects of Hurricane Sandy. By comparison, this week’s figures are expected to show a reversion to normal claims conditions, as well as hint to an improving labor market. For the week,claims are expected to rise to 397,000, far lower than the 439,000 seen in the prior report. Of course, a caveat remains in the occurrence of the subsequent Nor’easter, which may have skewed report findings for a second straight week.
A better than expected claims will further boost the already charged USDJPY pair. Further upside extension is likely towards 82.50 resistance in the near term.
5. Canadian Retail Sales (November 22nd)
Anticipated to rise by 0.6% in the month over month comparison, September Canadian retail sales are set to gain for the third time in the last four months. The boost in domestic consumption will ultimately translate into higher growth prospects for the world’s 11th largest economy. It would also bunk recent speculation that the Canadian economy is portending towards a short term slump, sparking unjustified hopes of a Bank of Canada rate stay by the market.
Ultimately, a positive show by the report would boost Canadian dollar prospects against the US dollar – currently testing 1.0050 resistance. Failure to break above be Loonie bullish and open the door for a decline to 0.9911 support.
