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The ECB can afford to wait
Fri, Feb 9 2007, 09:13 GMT
by Joseph Trevisani
Of the many interpretations and exegeses of the ECB and Mr. Trichet that I read today, the one that I think comes closest to reality is the simplest. The ECB can afford to wait. If they hike on March 8th the next decision is not due until early May. Many things can become clear in four months. Currently growth is healthy, and inflation appears to be moderating despite the ECB’s official misgivings. But inflation worries are an ECB given. Mr. Trichet could not have moderated his rhetoric against inflation today, whatever his private view of the prospect, without prompting a market assumption that he is not ready to concede. Statistics will tell the tale in Europe much as they have in the United States. If today’s trends continue then ECB’s trickiest problem over the next several months will be how to distance its actions from the official 8% money supply target.
Published on Fri, Feb 9 2007, 09:15 GMT
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