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Poland: The only prudent thing to do
Wed, Nov 28 2007, 16:21 GMT
by Lars Christensen
Danske Bank A/S
The Polish central bank as expected announced that it has hiked its key policy rate by 25bp to 5.0%. The decision is overall neutral to the Polish markets, but note that some market participants had begun to speculate about a more aggressive hike.
Looking ahead we expect the NBP to hike its key policy rate further maybe already in December, but more likely in Q1. Inflationary pressures are on the rise in Poland. Both supply-side factors higher food and energy prices and demand-side pressures are adding to inflationary pressures. Furthermore, real wage growth at the moment outpaces productivity growth, increasing inflationary pressures.
We expect the NBP to be fairly hawkish at its press conference at 16:00 CET, but it should not move markets much as the markets have probably priced this in already.
Published on
Wed, Nov 28 2007, 16:22 GMT
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