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Monetary−policy meeting at the ECB
Wed, May 7 2008, 13:14 GMT
by Helle Varming
Interest-rate announcement
Current interest rate level: 4.00%
• In favour of an interest-rate cut of 25 bp:
- • sentiment indicators point to weaker growth
- • weaker growth will lead to a more moderate inflationary pressure
• In favour of unchanged interest rates:
- • inflation is still significantly above the central bank’s target of 2% (inflation at 3.6% y-o-y in March). See chart 1
- • the rising oil price helps maintain the upward pressure on inflation
Market expectations: unchanged interest rates
Jyske Bank’s expectations: unchanged interest rates
Published on Wed, May 7 2008, 13:14 GMT
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Monetary−policy meeting in the ECB on 10 April 2008
Thu, Apr 10 2008, 07:23 GMT
by Helle Varming
Interest-rate announcement
Current interest rate level: 4.00%
• In favour of unchanged interest rates:
- • Inflation is still considerably above the central bank’s target of approx. 2%.
- • Several ECB members have recently underlined that inflation is the primary target.
- • Fear that rising energy and food prices will in the long term result in higher wage increases.
• In favour of an interest-rate hike of 25 bp:
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• Slowdown of economic growth
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• Slightly weaker PMI index for the euro zone since the last monetary-policy meeting
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• The turmoil in the financial markets continues
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• The strong EUR has a dampening effect on inflation
Market expectations: unchanged
Our expectations: unchanged
Published on Thu, Apr 10 2008, 07:23 GMT
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Monetary−policy meeting at the ECB
Wed, Feb 6 2008, 09:34 GMT
by Morten Lykke Pedersen
Interest-rate announcement
Current interest rate level: 4.00%
• In favour of unchanged interest rates:
- • The ECB has recently indicated higher interest rates
- • The economic indicators cannot justify an interest-rate cut
- • The risk of inflation is still on the upside
• In favour of 25bp cut:
- • General expectations in the market of a softening from the ECB
- • Weak PMI figures this week
- • Slowdown in economic growth in the US
Published on Wed, Feb 6 2008, 09:38 GMT
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