Consumer price inflation started 2013 on a soft note, as the headline CPI remained flat in January. In concert with recent import prices and PPI performance, the near-term inflation outlook remains Fed friendly.

Energy and Food Prices Soft on the Month

Following December’s soft performance, headline consumer inflation was unchanged in January as the decline in energy prices offset gains in other goods and services. For the third straight month, the energy sector heavily influenced the report, falling 1.7 percent. As was witnessed in yesterday’s PPI report, unseasonally adjusted gasoline prices actually increased in January, up 0.3 percent, but on a seasonally adjusted basis, prices fell on the month, down 3.0 percent. With February retail gasoline prices already averaging 30 cents over the January average, and with the seasonals less favorable this month, it is very likely we will see a significant reversal in energy inflation in February.

Breaking a string of ten consecutive monthly increases, unchanged food prices also contributed to the headline’s soft reading. After rising at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, the food at home component remained flat in January as major grocery store food indices were mixed. Food prices away from home continue to edge higher, up 0.1 percent on the month, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.3 percent. While food inflation is expected to pick up in the coming months, at least to date the pass-through from higher wholesale prices has been limited.

The market-driving news in this report was the stronger-than-expected gain in core CPI. Increasing at the strongest monthly pace since May 2011, core consumer prices jumped 0.3 percent following benign readings in December and November. Strength was led by sizeable gains in apparel, hotel rates and airline fares. Shelter costs, which account for roughly forty percent of core CPI, continue to strengthen in tandem with the housing market recovery, rising 0.2 percent. While certainly the recent upward trend in the three-month annualized rate suggests continued upward price pressure on the core CPI, today’s soft demand environment is not conducive to runaway inflation. We continue to expect modest headline and consumer price inflation in 2013.

Inflation Outlook Still Fed Friendly

Today’s report, in combination with other recent inflation reports, continues to give the Fed the green-light for highly accommodative monetary policy. The Jan. 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes highlighted the Fed’s view of “subdued” inflation, likely to remain under the 2 percent longer-run objective. Inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks and will be closely monitored, but unless growth picks up more substantially than is expected, we believe this year’s FOMC is more acutely focused on the employment mandate than the price stability mandate. With unemployment elevated near 8 percent and inflation still giving a “free pass”, we do not believe the Fed will alter their monetary policy course anytime soon.