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US: Update Productivity and ULC
Fri, Nov 6 2009, 09:15 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team
Non-farm business sector labor productivity, defined as output per hour, rose by 9.5% in 3Q09, following a 6.9% increase in the second quarter. This quarter’s increase is the largest since 3Q03.
The rise in productivity reflects the first stages of the recovery process. Output rose 4.2%, the first increase since 2Q08, but hours worked declined 4.9%, the seventh consecutive decline. The drop in hours is reflective of ongoing weakness in the labor market as companies are covering the growth in output with existing employees.
Unit labor cost (ULC) declined 5.1%, following a 6.0% drop in 2Q09. While the rise in hourly compensation accelerated to 3.8%, compared to 0.4% in the previous quarter, it was outpaced by the increase in productivity. Over the previous three quarters, ULC has decreased 3.6%, the largest since the series began in 1948.
Bottom-line: The increase in productivity is consistent with the current state of economic activity. Even though output is increasing, the economy is still shedding jobs. Given our expectation of growth in 4Q09 coupled with further declines in non-farm payrolls, we anticipate an additional rise in productivity.
Published on Fri, Nov 6 2009, 09:16 GMT
BBVA Bancomer
| Av. Universidad 1200 Col. Xoco México 03339 D.F.
http://www.bancomer.com/economica | e.economicos@bbva.bancomer.com
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