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US: ISM preview, October
Fri, Oct 30 2009, 19:28 GMT
by Signe Roed-Frederiksen
- Last month ISM disappointed, by falling slightly to 52.6 from August’ reading of 52.9. Also the important New Orders subindex showed signs of softness, although still at a high level
- Overall the local indices points towards an unchanged reading of ISM. However, the last couple of months the local indices have lagged the countrywide index. The New Orders index has risen in most of the local surveys this month.
- We believe that last month’s decline was a one-off affair and thus expect that ISM to increase again in October. Even though the local surveys points to a roughly unchanged ISM this time around, taking the signals from our ISM models, based on various financial and economic indicators, into account, we expect the ISM index to rise to 54.0.
- Going forward we still expect ISM to continue its march towards 60, driven by the inventory cycle, where we will see a closing of the gap between production and demand. Furthermore, the marked improvement in financial conditions over the past months lends some support to the economy and hence the ISM.
Published on Fri, Oct 30 2009, 19:31 GMT
Danske Bank
| Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
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