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US: ISM preview, June
Wed, Jul 1 2009, 07:01 GMT
by Signe Roed-Frederiksen
- The US ISM manufacturing index breached the 42 level in May, indicating that the overall economy is now expanding again. The details strongly suggest that the ISM will move higher in the coming months The New Orders index increased to 51.1 indicating that order growth is back in the black and the balance between inventories and new orders is signalling a very bullish trend for the ISM.
- The readings from the local indices have again been slightly mixed this month, but overall the reading from the local surveys is positive. The local indices suggest an ISM reading of 44.5. Taking other variables into account as well, we expect Monday’s ISM index to post an increase to 45.6, which is slightly higher than the consensus forecast of 44.6.
- Going forward we continue to expect that the ISM index will move higher. Our target is for the index to breach 50 by late-summer. That said the problems in the auto industry are a near-term factor of uncertainty. The underlying trend nevertheless remains up, as production growth is expected to pick up in order to close the massive gap between demand and supply.
Published on Wed, Jul 1 2009, 07:03 GMT
Danske Bank
| Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
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This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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