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US: ISM Monitor
Fri, May 30 2008, 15:29 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen
Recent development
April's ISM figure was unchanged at 48.6 compared to March. The new orders index remained very weak and the employment index declined considerably, whereas the production index and inventories increased.
The regional indices gave off varying signals in May. Philly Fed increased significantly, whereas Kansas declined somewhat. When looking into the details, all local production indices except Chicago declined. The local inventories indices have shown mixed signs; Philly Fed and Chicago increased, whereas the other local inventories indices decreased. On balance the local new order indexes have moved slightly lower.
On Monday we expect an ISM reading of 47.5, which is below the consensus forecast of 48.5, but higher than our onemonth model's forecast. When looking three months ahead, we expect the ISM to move lower due to lagged effects from weak demand from consumers and businesses. However, during the autumn we expect the positive effect from the tax rebates to begin to feed into the industry.
Published on Fri, May 30 2008, 15:29 GMT
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US: ISM Monitor
Thu, May 1 2008, 13:01 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen
Recent development
March's ISM figure showed a modest increase to 48.6 from 48.3 in February. The rise was mainly driven by increases in supplier deliveries and employment. The new orders index dropped to its lowest level since 2001.
In April, all the regional surveys, except Philly, showed increases in the inventories, and all regions, except Kansas, showed decreases in employment. In summary, Kansas has shown a large increase, whereas Philly and Richmond have shown signs of weakness, compared to last month. The local indices signal an increase in the ISM to 49.8. But as we have mentioned before, the local surveys often tend to lag the national ISM. Today, we expect an ISM reading of 47.5, which is below the consensus forecast of 48.0, but hig
her than our onemonth model's forecast. When looking three months ahead, we expect that the ISM will decline to a level around 45 due to weak demand from the consumers and businesses. However, during the autumn, we expect that the positive effect from the tax rebate will begin to feed into the industry.
Published on Thu, May 1 2008, 13:01 GMT
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US: ISM Monitor
Tue, Apr 1 2008, 14:03 GMT
by Danske Research Team
Following a short rebound in January, ISM fell to 48.3 in February. According to the details, the decline was driven by important sub components such as production, new orders and employment.
This month, the signals from the local indices have been generally positive. Richmond and Chicago rose significantly, while Dallas and New York saw modestly higher readings. However, data from Philly Fed and Kansas have been soft.
Our monthly model forecasts a modest decline of one index point to 47.3 - fairly close to the consensus expectation of 47.5. According to the local indices, the risk may be slightly on the upside. On the other hand, demand for consumer and investment goods has softened considerably in recent months. Moreover, the tendency has recently been for the ISM to lead the local indices. In the next 3-6 months, the ISM is set to grind lower, reaching 45.0 in May/June - just above the recession threshold of 42.
Published on Tue, Apr 1 2008, 14:03 GMT
Danske Bank
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