Business inventories increased 0.4 percent in October, which is a slowdown from the 0.7 percent average monthly gain seen in the third quarter. Despite slower sales, inventories remained contained.

 A More Modest Pace of Inventory Growth

  • Business inventories rose in line with expectations in October, increasing 0.4 percent. Retail and wholesale firms each increased stocks by 0.6 percent while manufacturer’s inventory building slowed to a 0.1 percent increase. Sales fell 0.4 percent over the month, dragged down by declines at retailers and wholesalers. However, a report released earlier today shows that the downturn in retail sales will be short lived. 

Cautious Building Ahead 

  • The inventory-to-sales ratio ticked up to 1.29, but remained within its recent band, which is still historically low. 
  • The slower pace of inventory building suggests firms are cautious over their upcoming sales prospects as policymakers still have not settled on a deal over upcoming tax and spending changes. Following a fast clip of growth in Q3, inventory building looks to have slowed and will likely be a drag on Q4 GDP.