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UK: Very strong retail sales
Thu, Jun 19 2008, 10:41 GMT
by Allan von Mehren, John Hydeskov
Overview: UK retail sales surprised to the upside yet again, rising 3.5% m/m in May. The number is surprising in two ways: 1) Surveys have been weak across the board, and 2) Fundamentals for UK consumers are weak, with inflation expectations rising. We are a bit sceptical of the strength but it does increase the risk that the Bank of England could follow the ECB and send a "warning shot" to anchor inflation expectations. We still believe this probability is below 50%, though, and hence are not changing our forecast of the Bank of England on hold for now, followed by rate cuts next year.
Published on Thu, Jun 19 2008, 10:42 GMT
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